337
FXUS62 KJAX 031255
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
855 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A frontal boundary/trough axis oriented east-west over central
Georgia will continue to dissipate today. A surface high pressure
center will build south as the Bermuda-Azores Ridge remains
dominant over the Florida Peninsula. With a moist airmass coming
in from the Gulf of Mexico we should see sea breeze front
convergence over the interior areas with scattered to numerous
storm along an near Interstate 75/U.S. 301 this afternoon and
evening. High temperatures today will rise into the lower to mid
90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s along the
coast. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop down into
the mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s
along the coast. Heat index values will rise to be above 100
degrees today for some areas but are not expected to reach Heat
Advisory levels this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For Independence Day, weak and diffuse frontal boundary looks to
be located near the FL/GA state line with low level convergence,
PWATs near 2 inches, and west and east sea breezes pushing inland
to support scattered to numerous showers and storms, with heaviest
concentration/coverage at about 70 percent across inland northeast
FL where the best low level forcing will be located. Drier air in
the mid levels advecting in from the northeast will support lower
coverage across portions of eastern GA. Highs in the lower 90s
expected with heat indices generally 104-108, and so continues to
suggest just shy of a widespread heat advy conditions. Main t-storm
threats will be gusty winds and very heavy rainfall/localized
flooding potential given the high moisture content and slow storm
motion to the south to southwest.

Thursday night, sfc high pressure builds in from the northeast and
east. Low level convergence inland and residual daytime instability
will support isolated to scattered convection during the evening
hours. Convective activity should fade by midnight. Lows continue
from the mid 70s inland to upper 70s near the coast.

Friday, the frontal boundary is no longer noted in the guidance and
general sfc high pressure ridge is over the region. Mid level ridge
will be just west of the area, and mean deep layer winds are only
about 5 knots. Best moisture is located inland with PWATS near 2 inches,
and this is where we have the best rain chances at 40-60 percent,
and tapering to 30-40 percent near the coast. West and east sea
breezes, and daytime heating will be the main drivers of diurnal
convection. Max temps will be inched 1-2 degrees given the greater
daytime insolation. Friday night, some isolated inland convection
is possible, but should fade quickly during the evening hours.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Essentially little change in the thinking with the mid to upper
level ridge over the southeast states initially for the weekend,
and then shifts slightly south-southeast by Monday and Tuesday as
some mid level troughing digs in AL and GA. Weak sfc ridge will
be over the region through the weekend, and then build slightly
on Monday and Tuesday while shifting more so into north central
or central FL on Tuesday. We don`t see much appreciable change in
the moisture levels with PWATs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches and given the
weak synoptic flow, sea breezes and daytime heating should lead
to scattered to numerous shower and storm coverage each day, though
some slightly drier air across the eastern zones may limit convection
there. Max temps will be in the lower to mid 90s and with the dewpoints
of mid 70s, occasional upper 70s, some heat advisory criteria will
be possible in some locations each day. Lows mainly in the mid
70s are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

No change in forecast thinking. A few morning showers near KSSI
with a surface trough just north of them. This afternoon sea
breeze front convergence convection will fire across the spine of
the Fl peninsula and over inland SE GA. As the Atlantic sea breeze
will be dominant expect the main fields impacted will be KGNV and
KVQQ. Have VCTS for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 847 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Prevailing winds have shifted to easterly as high pressure builds
over the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the southeastern
seaboard. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
across our local waters along and south of a stalled frontal
boundary today. The frontal boundary will gradually dissipate over
the Georgia waters by Thursday, with prevailing onshore winds
continuing as high pressure weakens off the eastern seaboard.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected to decrease
across our local waters late this week through Saturday, with
prevailing winds then shifting to southwesterly during the weekend
ahead of the next weakening frontal boundary that will be
entering the southeastern states.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for beaches through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  74  93  74 /  60  20  30  10
SSI  90  79  90  78 /  40  20  30  10
JAX  93  76  92  75 /  60  20  70  20
SGJ  92  77  91  77 /  50  20  60  10
GNV  93  74  92  74 /  80  40  70  30
OCF  94  75  93  76 /  80  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$