781
FXUS62 KJAX 031736
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
136 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Squeeze play between a trough just to our north, the Atlantic sea
breeze and Gulf Sea Breeze front this afternoon and evening will
lead to scattered to widespread convection over the spine of the
FL peninsula and extreme SE GA. Convection is already popping and
will be most significant in the Ocala-Gainesville to Lake City
areas. Convection should die off between 10 p.m. and midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For Independence Day, weak and diffuse frontal boundary looks to
be located near the FL/GA state line with low level convergence,
PWATs near 2 inches, and west and east sea breezes pushing inland
to support scattered to numerous showers and storms, with heaviest
concentration/coverage at about 70 percent across inland northeast
FL where the best low level forcing will be located. Drier air in
the mid levels advecting in from the northeast will support lower
coverage across portions of eastern GA. Highs in the lower 90s
expected with heat indices generally 104-108, and so continues to
suggest just shy of a widespread heat advy conditions. Main t-storm
threats will be gusty winds and very heavy rainfall/localized
flooding potential given the high moisture content and slow storm
motion to the south to southwest.

Thursday night, sfc high pressure builds in from the northeast and
east. Low level convergence inland and residual daytime instability
will support isolated to scattered convection during the evening
hours. Convective activity should fade by midnight. Lows continue
from the mid 70s inland to upper 70s near the coast.

Friday, the frontal boundary is no longer noted in the guidance and
general sfc high pressure ridge is over the region. Mid level ridge
will be just west of the area, and mean deep layer winds are only
about 5 knots. Best moisture is located inland with PWATS near 2 inches,
and this is where we have the best rain chances at 40-60 percent,
and tapering to 30-40 percent near the coast. West and east sea
breezes, and daytime heating will be the main drivers of diurnal
convection. Max temps will be inched 1-2 degrees given the greater
daytime insolation. Friday night, some isolated inland convection
is possible, but should fade quickly during the evening hours.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Essentially little change in the thinking with the mid to upper
level ridge over the southeast states initially for the weekend,
and then shifts slightly south-southeast by Monday and Tuesday as
some mid level troughing digs in AL and GA. Weak sfc ridge will
be over the region through the weekend, and then build slightly
on Monday and Tuesday while shifting more so into north central
or central FL on Tuesday. We don`t see much appreciable change in
the moisture levels with PWATs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches and given the
weak synoptic flow, sea breezes and daytime heating should lead
to scattered to numerous shower and storm coverage each day,
though some slightly drier air across the eastern zones may limit
convection there. Max temps will be in the lower to mid 90s and
with the dewpoints of mid 70s, occasional upper 70s, some heat
advisory criteria will be possible in some locations each day.
Lows mainly in the mid 70s are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Squeeze play between a trough just to our north, the Atlantic sea
breeze and Gulf Sea Breeze front this afternoon and evening will
lead to scattered to widespread convection over the spine of the
FL peninsula and extreme SE GA. Convection is already popping and
will be most significant in the KOCF, KVQQ and KGNV areas. Will
introduce a TEMPO group for most fields as the convection slides
inland past them. Due to the convergence near KGNV will go longer
there. Otherwise a TEMPO for fog at Cecil Airport tomorrow
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 847 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Prevailing winds have shifted to easterly as high pressure builds
over the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the southeastern
seaboard. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
across our local waters along and south of a stalled frontal
boundary today. The frontal boundary will gradually dissipate over
the Georgia waters by Thursday, with prevailing onshore winds
continuing as high pressure weakens off the eastern seaboard.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected to decrease
across our local waters late this week through Saturday, with
prevailing winds then shifting to southwesterly during the weekend
ahead of the next weakening frontal boundary that will be
entering the southeastern states.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for beaches through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  74  94  74 /  60  20  30  10
SSI  90  79  90  79 /  40  20  20   0
JAX  93  76  93  75 /  60  20  50  10
SGJ  92  77  91  77 /  50  20  50  10
GNV  93  74  92  74 /  80  40  70  10
OCF  94  75  93  75 /  80  40  70  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$