354
FXUS62 KJAX 021846
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
246 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon as the presence
of a stalled frontal boundary just north of the FL GA border,
diurnal heating, and boundary collisions continue into the evening
hours. The main concerns with any stronger storms that may form
will be winds of 40 to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and localized
flooding, especially in urban areas and flood prone locations.
Areas of convection are mainly focused in SE GA and NE FL where
sea-breeze collisions are occurring along the Atlantic coast
before shifting slowly to the west into the evening hours.
Temperatures have cooled slightly with the rain and cloud cover
into the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon with temperatures in
the mid 70s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Weakened frontal boundary over SE GA on Wednesday gradually
diffuses as surface high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast
extends down the southeastern seaboard. Meanwhile, upper ridging
remains in place over the SE US shifting flow to northeasterly.
Deep tropical moisture (PWATs 2.2-2.5 in.) lingers for mid-week
before drier air advects in from the northeast Thursday afternoon.
With sea breezes, daytime heating, and the weak frontal boundary,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday afternoon into evening. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds expected with the stronger storms mainly inland areas, given
the push of the easterly flow moving storms further inland.
Slightly less storm coverage compared to Wednesday for the 4th of
July with the beginnings of drier filtering into the area. High
temperatures will be in the low 90s. Heat indices could approach
heat advisory criteria along the I-75 corridor on Thursday.
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Generally weak/stacked ridging looks to dominate the long term,
with therefore a more sea breeze dominated influence expected in
the weak flow. An upper low off in the Atlantic on Friday will
start to push slowly westward towards the southeast US through the
weekend, which will have an influence on our weather through most
of this period as well. This low will advect some drier air in
aloft into at least a portion of the region by Friday and the
weekend, and especially near the coasts. There is some discrepancy
in guidance as to how fast and how close to the coast this low
gets, however do expect some limits to convective development for
at least more eastern parts of the region. Though given the time
of year, some chances for diurnal convection will still remain.
Stacked high pressure/some increase in heights aloft will keep
temps generally above average for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop near the SSI
terminal through around 22Z. Elsewhere, convection will shift
inland across northeast and north central FL as the afternoon
progresses, with impacts expected at JAX, VQQ and GNV after 20Z
and possibly extending past sunset. Periods of IFR visibilities
will be possible at these terminals during heavier downpours,
along with brief wind gusts up to 30 knots. Thunderstorms should
shift inland from CRG and SGJ, but vicinity coverage may continue
through around sunset. MVFR visibilities are expected to develop
towards midnight at VQQ after convection winds down. MVFR
visibilities will be possible at GNV towards sunrise, but
confidence remains too low to indicate in the TAF at this time.
VFR conditions should otherwise prevail overnight at the regional
terminals. Outside of thunderstorm activity, easterly winds around
10 knots will prevail at the regional terminals through around
sunset. Speeds will diminish after sunset and will then increase
to 5-10 knots after sunrise on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A frontal boundary will remain stalled over the Georgia waters
through Wednesday. Prevailing winds have shifted to easterly as
high pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic states wedges down
the southeastern seaboard. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage across our local waters along and south of this
stalled frontal boundary through Wednesday. The frontal boundary
will gradually dissipate over the Georgia waters by Thursday,
with prevailing onshore winds continuing as high pressure weakens
off the eastern seaboard. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
are expected to decrease across our local waters late this week
through Saturday, with prevailing winds then shifting to
southwesterly during the weekend ahead of the next weakening
frontal boundary that will be entering the southeastern states.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today and tomorrow at all
area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Light and generally easterly transport winds will continue through
Wednesday, with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms and more extensive cloud cover keeping
daytime dispersion values in the poor to fair range throughout our
region. Mixing heights will begin to rise on Thursday, but
generally light transport wind speeds will keep daytime dispersion
values in the fair range at most locations during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  92  75  93 /  40  70  10  40
SSI  78  89  79  90 /  40  30  20  30
JAX  76  93  76  92 /  20  40  10  50
SGJ  78  92  78  91 /  30  30  10  50
GNV  74  93  74  92 /  40  80  50  60
OCF  75  93  75  93 /  80  80  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$