451
FXUS64 KJAN 110523
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1223 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Friday through Friday night: a 1020mb surface high will continue to
ridge across the northern Gulf from the east resulting in a south to
southwest low level flow across our CWA. The 00Z FRI JAN sounding
showed a PWAT of 2.11in. Thus, wl maintain a moist airmass across
our CWA going into the weekend. A low amplitude upper level trough
as seen on satellite imagery southwest to northeast across our CWA
will gradually shift east Friday. Circulation around this feature
combined with daytime heating of our moist airmass is expected to
result in scattered to numerous coverage of convection over the
southeast half of our CWA. This will likely help hold heat stress
concerns down but in our west along the Mississippi river
especially, peak heat index values will be around 105F. Wl continue
to highlight this area with a "Limited" for heat stress but as we
head into Saturday, lower chances for convection and slightly warmer
temperatures may warrant a Heat Advisory for portions of our CWA.
/22/

Saturday through mid next week...

Much of the previous forecast still applies, as we are still under a
typical summer pattern. The main thing will be a steady increase in
heat as temperatures rise to the mid 90s beginning this weekend.
Temperatures may even crack the upper 90s to near 100 by mid next
week as WNW low level trajectories promote deeper mixing. Resulting
heat indices will be in the 105-110 range, though spots of 110+
cannot be ruled out. Will continue to carry a limited/elevated heat
messaging for this weekend into next week. There is potential for a
targeted upgrade to significant if trends hold. That said, moisture
remains sufficient to support the persistence of diurnally driven
thunderstorms. The main question is the timing of those storms, as
an earlier onset could limit heat risk a bit. Notably, lower PoPs in
the west increases confidence for heat in these areas. Given the hot
and humid conditions, will have to monitor for microburst potential
day to day./SAS/


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The -SHRA across the south wl continue to dissipate by 01Z.
Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected across the se half of the
area by 20Z Fri. Away from TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail through
the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  73  94  74 /  60  10  40  10
Meridian      89  72  94  73 /  80  10  40  10
Vicksburg     93  74  95  74 /  40  10  20  10
Hattiesburg   93  74  96  74 /  70  10  60  10
Natchez       92  73  94  73 /  50  10  40   0
Greenville    93  73  94  74 /  30  20  20  10
Greenwood     93  73  95  74 /  50  10  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SAS20/NF