272
FXUS64 KJAN 011720
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Rest of the Afternoon into Tonight...A trough passing to our north
will continue pushing a frontal boundary south and into the forecast
area through Wednesday morning. This will continue to aid in
sparking showers and storms across the forecast area through the
remainder of this afternoon into the overnight hours. With the
unstable airmass over the CWA, coupled with some extra forcing along
the front and deep-layer shear around 30 knots, the potential for
isolated severe storms will continue into this evening. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with such storms, with
frequent lightning and heavy downpours likely. With the loss of
daytime heating, convection is forecast to wane in both coverage and
intensity as we approach midnight, but some isolated showers and
storms can`t be ruled out overnight as the front continues its
southward trek.  Otherwise, look for another mild night, despite
some slightly drier air beginning to advect into the region in the
wake of the front, as lows fall into the low and middle 70s. /19/

Wednesday through next Tuesday... The passage of a frontal
boundary tonight will usher in a period of persistent dry weather
through the end of the week. A drier airmass will settle over the
region as northwesterly flow aloft prevails, allowing temperatures
to reach the mid 90s by Friday. Rain chances will remain
extremely low, with only isolated precip possible, primarily
across the southern portions of the CWA, where probabilities
remain less than 10%. By Saturday, moisture looks to begin to
increase again, increasing the possibility for heat stress
conditions. Additionally, chances for diurnal convection will
gradually increase heading into early next workweek./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Away from convection, VFR flight categories will prevail at area
TAF sites through much of this forecast period. At sites where
convection is observed, flight categories will fall to MVFR/IFR
status due to degraded ceilings and visibilities for a brief 1-2
hour period of time. Towards day break Wednesday, some low stratus
and/or patchy ground fog could again reduce categories to MVFR
status briefly. West winds today will gradually become more
northwesterly and northerly overnight into Wednesday in the wake
of a frontal boundary sinking through the region. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  91  70  92 /  20  10   0  10
Meridian      71  91  68  92 /  30  10   0  10
Vicksburg     73  92  71  92 /  20  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   73  94  72  95 /  20  30   0  10
Natchez       73  90  71  92 /  20  20   0  10
Greenville    72  91  70  91 /  10  10   0  10
Greenwood     71  92  69  92 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/KP/