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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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860 FXUS64 KJAN 131002 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 502 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 501 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Today and Tonight... Model consensus generally agree that a subtropical high will remain centered over the southeast region today. With this in mind, the stationary dry airmass will heat up beneath the high. This will unfortunately raise heat stress levels into the 105F-110F deg range. A heat advisory remains in effect today from 10 AM this morning until 8 PM later this evening. Furthermore, the advisory has been expanded further eastward in order to include portions of northwest, central, south central and southeast MS. A few changes have been made to the heat graphic for today and both the "Limited" and "Elevated" risk for heat have been expanded further east. Aside from a few mid/high level clouds, sky conditions will be generally clear across the area. This combined with sufficient daytime heating will help afternoon highs peak in the upper 90s with a spots reaching the low 100s. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out mainly for areas along and south of the Hwy 84 corridor. Heading into tonight, weather conditions will remain quiet as the subtropical high remains in place over the region. HREF guidance is hinting at some patchy fog potential across parts of Concordia and Catahoula parishes later in the overnight period. Nighttime temperatures will drop in the low to mid 70s areawide. Wednesday through Tuesday... Dangerous heat conditions continues to be the primary focus for the extended period with no major adjustments made to the overall forecast. There still remains secondary challenge regarding rain/storm coverage and timing later in the week which will be discussed further down below. Hot and dry conditions will make a return to the forecast region by mid day Wednesday. Because of this, heat indices will once again be in the 105-110F deg range. A few areas along and south of I-20 could see heat indices above 110F. Any ongoing Heat Advisories may need to be expanded further east heading into Wednesday. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon. Forecast confidence is still low in regards to the precise orientation of this pattern due to discrepancies with model guidance. At the moment, we are still looking at chance for scattered showers and storms east of I- 55 with low end PoP chances hovering in the 15-25% range. Thursday will see a continuation of hot conditions with areas east of I-55 seeing afternoon temperatures climb in the low 100s with the rest of the area seeing highs in the upper 90s. Heat indices will be similar to Wednesday with isolated areas south of I-20 and across the Delta seeing heat indices above 110F. Additional heat advisories/warnings may be needed heading into the late week with concerns for significant heat stress increasing as well. With that being said, areas along and east of I-55 could have a slight chance (around 15- 30%) for scattered showers and storms. Moving along into the late week and into the weekend, Friday through Sunday could have the best coverage of diurnally driven storms especially for eastern portions of the area. Forecast confidence at this point still remains low due to uncertainty with long term model guidance variability in regards to the timing and strength of the trough. Some of the more vigorous guidance (such as the GFS) does show the trough digging faster into the MS Valley region on Saturday, while the Euro is a touch slower into late weekend. If the faster and more amplified scenario plays out, we could see significant height falls and stronger northwest flow which could support organized storms earlier in the weekend with some possible severe weather potential during that timeframe. Trends will continue to be monitored. As this trough continues to dig southward, a frontal boundary will track south towards our CWA. The aforementioned boundary will help initiate afternoon scattered showers and t-storms, with the greatest coverage of low PoP chances (around 25%) east of I-55. Although cloud coverage will start to increase slightly, sufficient daytime heating will help afternoon highs peak in the upper 90s, with a couple of areas west of the MS River reaching low 100s. With dewpoints expected to climb in the low to mid 70s around this timeframe, heat indices will once again be near 105F-110F deg. Should start to see a downward trend in heat indices by Monday to start the new work week. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or popup storm around this timeframe, especially for areas across southeast MS. Similar conditions could occur on Tuesday as future guidance hints at the weak front shifting further south towards the Pine Belt. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR flight categories & light & variable winds, northerly at times & less than 10mph, will prevail at the TAF sites through the period. Winds may be more variable in southern Mississippi where a sea breeze could turn winds out of the south Tuesday. /DC/NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 98 76 100 76 / 10 0 20 10 Meridian 98 74 99 75 / 10 0 20 10 Vicksburg 98 76 100 77 / 10 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 99 75 101 76 / 20 10 20 10 Natchez 97 75 99 76 / 10 0 10 10 Greenville 97 76 98 77 / 0 10 20 10 Greenwood 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>056-059>066- 072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ CR/DC/NF