![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
173 FXUS64 KJAN 140529 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 After a hot day with highs in the upper 90s to near 100, a quiet weather night is underway with a nice drop in temperatures taking place so far this evening. Have lowered overnight lows just a bit, but overall the forecast is on track and no significant adjustments were needed for the evening near term update. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Tonight/Wed: Mild and quiet conditions under mostly clear skies are expected tonight. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 70s. Patchy fog may be possible in southwestern portion of the area near sunrise on Wednesday. Persistent, high pressure will center over the ArkLaMiss region on Wednesday, leading to another day of high temps in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across the area. No changes were made to the "Elevated" and "Limited" heat stress HWO graphic. A heat advisory will go into effect at 10am until 8pm. Take precautions to remain cool, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks if working outdoors. /SW/ Wednesday night through Monday night: Heat and humidity will continue to be the main weather concern through the forecast period. Low chances of mainly diurnal convection will be limited to the eastern half of the CWA where total rainfall amounts through the period are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. Come Wednesday evening our CWA will still be on the eastern periphery of a large 594dam covering most of the southern tier states. A >1016mb surface ridge will be nosing into our CWA from the northeast. This will initially maintain a slightly drier airmass over our northeast zones but elsewhere, a very moist airmass will lead to high humidity as temperatures climb up into the 90s. This will likely lead to heat index values above 105F and another Heat Advisory will be needed for the remainder of our CWA again. Thursday a closed low over the northern Plains and shifting east toward the Great Lakes region will begin deepening a trough over the central Plains. This deepening trough will try to make a dent in the mid level ridge across our region but ridging both surface and aloft looks to hang tough through Friday. Saturday models suggest a possible mcs along the stalled frontal boundary associated with the closed low system. This possible mcs is expected to drop southeast across northern Mississippi Saturday afternoon. An associated outflow boundary will increase coverage of convection over the eastern half of the CWA and help prolong convection in the north and northeast through the night. Depending on how far into the central portions of our CWA before the boundary stalls, the coverage of heat stress related products will likely need to be trimmed back to the southwest Sunday and Monday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR flight categories & light & variable winds, less than 10mph, will prevail through the period. Some SHRA & isolated TSRA can`t be ruled out across from 13/20Z through 14/00Z. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 99 76 99 77 / 20 10 30 10 Meridian 99 75 98 75 / 20 10 20 10 Vicksburg 99 77 99 77 / 20 10 20 10 Hattiesburg 101 76 98 77 / 20 10 30 10 Natchez 99 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10 Greenville 97 77 99 77 / 20 10 10 10 Greenwood 97 77 100 76 / 20 10 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>056-059>066- 072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ EC/22/DC