688
FXUS64 KJAN 010533 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Current radar scans are showing a line of strong storms across
portions of east MS. Elsewhere, weather conditions will remain quiet
over the rest of our forecast area this evening. Portions of the NW
Delta region could see a slight chance of scattered showers heading
into the overnight period with dry conditions elsewhere. Areas along
and east of I-55 will see an increase in cloud cover tonight. Expect
nighttime temperatures to dip into the low to mid 70s across the
area. Updates are out. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Tonight through Sunday...High pressure aloft will steadily slide
further east and deeper into the forecast area throughout the work
week and into the upcoming holiday weekend.  By mid-week, a trough
to the north will send a cold front further south and into the CWA
through the end of the work week.  As the front`s mid/upper level
support shifts east and along the east coast, the front will
essentially hang up and stall just south of north central gulf coast
into the weekend.

Ahead of the front, hot and very humid conditions will continue to
prevail across the forecast area.  This afternoon, a good coverage
of showers and storms can be expected, especially across eastern
portions of the area on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned
high aloft.  Some of the more intense storms during this time will
be capable of producing gusty winds, but frequent lightning and
heavy downpours will be possible will all storms that develop.  Then
on Tuesday, with the addition of some better forcing as the front
drops closer to the CWA, along with the already moist and unstable
airmass, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms will exist
across the majority of the area.  Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary concern with any severe storms.  This activity will begin to
weaken and wane in coverage after sunset each evening.

As the front pushes south through the forecast area Wednesday, and
remains south of the CWA into the weekend, some slightly drier air
will seep into the region.  Chances for afternoon and evening
showers and storms will also be shunted further south and ahead of
the front.  Despite this drier air advecting into the region, the
lesser coverage of both convection and clouds each day through the
weekend, will result in hotter afternoon temperatures as highs will
eventually peak into the mid and upper 90s areawide.  Once again,
this could result in another round of potential "heat advisories"
portions of, if not all of, the forecast area Saturday into Sunday.
Speaking of Sunday, some subtle amounts of moisture will begin
increasing across the region, resulting in a few more showers and
storms developing across the area in the heat of the afternoon. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Brief patchy fog or low clouds will be possible through around
daybreak, though confidence is not high enough to prevail at any
TAF site. Scattered SH and TS are expected, with brief
categorical reductions and gusty wind possible. Though most
coverage of convection will be from mid afternoon through early
evening, isolated activity is possible until that time. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  73  91  71 /  70  30  20  10
Meridian      90  71  90  70 /  70  30  20   0
Vicksburg     93  73  92  73 /  60  20  20  10
Hattiesburg   93  73  94  73 /  80  30  40  10
Natchez       91  73  90  73 /  60  20  30  10
Greenville    90  73  91  71 /  40  10  20   0
Greenwood     90  72  92  70 /  60  10  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/19/DL