173
FXUS64 KJAN 140529
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

After a hot day with highs in the upper 90s to near 100, a quiet
weather night is underway with a nice drop in temperatures taking
place so far this evening. Have lowered overnight lows just a bit,
but overall the forecast is on track and no significant
adjustments were needed for the evening near term update. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Tonight/Wed: Mild and quiet conditions under mostly clear skies
are expected tonight. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid
70s. Patchy fog may be possible in southwestern portion of the
area near sunrise on Wednesday.

Persistent, high pressure will center over the ArkLaMiss region on
Wednesday, leading to another day of high temps in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees across the area. No changes were made to the
"Elevated" and "Limited" heat stress HWO graphic. A heat advisory
will go into effect at 10am until 8pm. Take precautions to remain
cool, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks if working outdoors.
/SW/

Wednesday night through Monday night: Heat and humidity will
continue to be the main weather concern through the forecast period.
Low chances of mainly diurnal convection will be limited to the
eastern half of the CWA where total rainfall amounts through the
period are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch.

Come Wednesday evening our CWA will still be on the eastern
periphery of a large 594dam covering most of the southern tier
states. A >1016mb surface ridge will be nosing into our CWA from the
northeast. This will initially maintain a slightly drier airmass
over our northeast zones but elsewhere, a very moist airmass will
lead to high humidity as temperatures climb up into the 90s. This
will likely lead to heat index values above 105F and another Heat
Advisory will be needed for the remainder of our CWA again. Thursday
a closed low over the northern Plains and shifting east toward the
Great Lakes region will begin deepening a trough over the central
Plains. This deepening trough will try to make a dent in the mid
level ridge across our region but ridging both surface and aloft
looks to hang tough through Friday. Saturday models suggest a
possible mcs along the stalled frontal boundary associated with the
closed low system. This possible mcs is expected to drop southeast
across northern Mississippi Saturday afternoon. An associated
outflow boundary will increase coverage of convection over the
eastern half of the CWA and help prolong convection in the north and
northeast through the night. Depending on how far into the central
portions of our CWA before the boundary stalls, the coverage of heat
stress related products will likely need to be trimmed back to the
southwest Sunday and Monday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR flight categories & light & variable winds, less than 10mph,
will prevail through the period. Some SHRA & isolated TSRA can`t
be ruled out across from 13/20Z through 14/00Z. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       99  76  99  77 /  20  10  30  10
Meridian      99  75  98  75 /  20  10  20  10
Vicksburg     99  77  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
Hattiesburg  101  76  98  77 /  20  10  30  10
Natchez       99  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  10
Greenville    97  77  99  77 /  20  10  10  10
Greenwood     97  77 100  76 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>056-059>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/22/DC