345
FXUS63 KILX 180456
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be 5 to as much as 10 degrees below normal
  through the weekend, with less humidity than usual as well.

- The next chance for precipitation (20 to 40 percent) looks to
  be early next week. The potential for severe thunderstorms or
  heavy rainfall appears to be low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

High pressure across Minnesota will continue to settle southeast
overnight. This will keep a cooler northerly flow in place over
our area, allowing temperatures to drop into some rather pleasant
ranges for mid-July (mainly upper 50s). Most of the diurnal
cumulus continues to fade and skies will mainly be mostly clear
overnight, though some higher clouds will stream northeast across
areas south of I-70 through the evening. Little change was needed
to the going forecast.

Geelhart

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Central IL will be dry tonight as a cold front continues to push
off to the east, with all associated showers and thunderstorms
just south/east of the area so far, and likely remaining southeast
of the area. High pressure over the northern Plains will then
drift southward the next couple of days, centering itself near IL
late in the week then weakening as a weak upper level trough
develops over the central U.S. The high will bring precipitable
water values in the neighborhood of 0.75 inches or close to 10th
percentile for this time of year, lingering through Saturday. This
should keep conditions dry with unseasonably pleasant humidity.
By Monday, precipitable water looks to rebound above 1.5 inches,
or above normal, as the central U.S. trough helps to advect Gulf
moisture into the area. Periodic shortwave disturbances rotating
around the trough could then bring occasional showers and
thunderstorms much of next work week.

Temperatures in the wake of the recent cold front will be 5 to as
much as 10 degrees below normal into the weekend, and likely next
week as well with increased cloud cover, with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s daily. Lows look to dip into the 50s the next few
nights, then likely increase into the 60s as moisture returns
Sunday into next week.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, and wind speeds
should stay below 10 knots. Winds start off northerly but turn to
northeasterly during the day Thursday. A few clouds around 5kft
are possible overnight, then scattered diurnal cumulus around
4-5kft will blossom by mid-morning and persist through the
afternoon.

Erwin

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$