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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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486 FXUS61 KILN 140629 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 229 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will offer mostly clear skies and light winds tonight. This high will continue to bring fair conditions through mid-week. The next chance of precipitation will arrive late Thursday into Friday as a mid-level trough approaches the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure remains overhead tonight bringing tranquil conditions. Aside from a few high level clouds, skies will be mostly clear. Light northerly winds allow temperatures to drop to near 60 areawide. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Light northwest flow across the downstream side of mid-level ridging will continue to provide fair conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. Sunshine, dry soil conditions, and a slow increase in mid-level heights will cause high temperatures to lift into the middle to upper 80s in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A subtle midlevel ridge axis will traverse the OH Vly into Thursday morning, with broad W/SW flow becoming established into the daytime as a trof digs into the upper Midwest. Ahead of the main trof axis, S/W energy will progress to the E through the aforementioned W/SW flow aloft, with an increase in forcing locally into the nighttime/early Friday morning. Moisture/theta-e advection will be on the increase Thursday afternoon with higher PWATs surging to the NE into the evening. This, combined with the increase in broad-scale forcing arriving Thursday night, will promote widespread shower/storm activity across at least a part of the region. The specifics of this still remain a bit uncertain, but given the ingredients and the pattern, would expect for one or more large/expansive clusters of storms to develop initially off to the W/NW of the ILN FA before drifting to the SE/S (potentially overspreading a larger (SW) portion of the local area) during the heart of the overnight period. It is during this stretch that the highest PoPs are likely to be focused as the broad-scale trof axis may already be moving E through the region into Friday afternoon. The fcst for the day Friday will be largely dependent on what happens Thursday night into early Friday morning, specifically as it relates to a rebound in instby/severe potential. Given the still- amply saturated environment and the trof axis moving through the region, would still expect /some/ shower and storm activity to persist through Friday evening as the trof amplifies and digs a bit more into the region. While the prospects of severe storms remain a bit uncertain at this juncture from Thursday night through Friday evening, confidence is much higher in the potential for widespread shower/storm activity. And despite the recent dry stretch, with PWATs pushing 150+ % of normals, any training or persistent activity will have the potential for bring locally heavy rainfall. This being said, there is not much confidence on /where/ this would occur at this point, so will maintain prob low in the HWO for now. As we progress into the weekend, precip chances should wane with time, but perhaps not go completely nil until we get to early next week. This is due to the digging of the mid/upper level low in the NE CONUS/ern Great Lakes and the establishment of broad NW flow setting up from upper Midwest into the OH Vly with several disturbances diving through this midlevel flow into the region through Sunday. In fact, the negative mid/upper level height anomaly settling in Friday night through Saturday night suggests that SHRA activity may still be somewhat widespread into the day Saturday, especially before the primary trof axis pivots through into early Sunday. So despite the slightly cooler (and drier) air filtering into the area for this weekend, there may be ISO/SCT SHRA around from time-to-time. Temps will be held near to slightly below normal this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Large area of high pressure to continue to offer mainly VFR conditions thru the TAF forecast period. Exception is KLUK valley location where some brief MVFR vsby restrictions are possible toward sunrise. Few to scattered VFR diurnal cumulus to develop this afternoon. These clouds will dissipate with sunset leaving mostly clear sky conditions heading into this evening. Light northerly winds at 5 knots or less persist overnight. Light winds veer to the east/northeast today at speeds less than 10 kts. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...AR