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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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311 FXUS61 KILN 171353 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 953 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the Ohio Valley through the first part of the upcoming work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Not much has changed regarding the expectations for storms today, either in coverage or intensity/severity. Rapid destabilization amidst an uncapped environment and sufficient forcing is expected toward/beyond 16-18z, with CI expected to follow soon afterwards. While there will be scattered storms just about anywhere/everywhere, the greatest coverage (numerous) thunderstorms should focus near/S of the I-71 corridor, particularly near/S of a line from near Switzerland Co IN to Fairfield Co OH. The greatest coverage and intensity of storms should focus from 2 PM to 8 PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A weakening area of showers and embedded thunderstorms has moved into northwest portions of our fa early this morning. This is moving into a less unstable environment, so expect to see a continued weakening/dissipating trend over the next couple of hours. A low pressure system will continue to spin slowly east across the central Great Lakes today. A trough axis/cold front extending south from the low will push slowly east into western portions of our area through late afternoon. As we destabilize through this afternoon, expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms become more numerous through mid to late afternoon. Strengthening wind fields/increasing deep layer shear will lead to the potential for a few severe storms later this afternoon. The best chance for this appears to be along and south of the Ohio River, where CAMs are showing the best updraft helicities in the 21Z-00Z time frame. Damaging winds and perhaps some large hail would be the main threat. Highs today will be mostly in the 85 to 90 degree range. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Thunderstorm activity will taper off this evening with the loss of daytime heating, with mainly dry conditions expected overnight. As the upper level low pushes slowly east across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday, the trailing upper level trough axis will push slowly east across our area. As we destabilize through the afternoon, fairly widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be expected once again Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will not be as warm though with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Axis of H5 trough will deepen over the OH/PA border overnight and exit to the east on Monday. Northerly flow over a deep portion of the atmosphere will push in cold air for the Ohio Valley. One last night with lows in the lower 60s Sunday night will then be replaced with readings 5-8 degrees below normal. Lower 50s through Wednesday night, mid-upper 50s Thursday night, and near 60 Friday night. Daytime highs will follow a similar curve with temps again 5-8 degrees below normal through Wednesday. Highs will be warmest in the south and coolest in west central Ohio, all within 2 or 3 degrees of 75. Near normal highs Thursday will be near 80 or in the low 80s, and warm to the mid 80s on Friday. Some lingering showers in the southeast Monday evening will quickly give way to dry conditions, with the dry forecast continuing through Friday. A surface high north of the CWA will track east on Wednesday, trailing a surface ridge over the region through Thursday night. The ridge passes to the south and return flow sets up, permitting a somewhat stronger warming over the CWA. Upper ridging over the mid sections of the country will be in play through the entirety of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A scattered line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms is pushing east across Indiana and west central Ohio. These should continue to slowly weaken through mid morning but may affect mainly KDAY for the first hour or so of the TAF period. Meanwhile some patchy areas of IFR cigs have developed this morning. These should slowly lift into MVFR and then VFR through mid to late morning. Otherwise, a low pressure system moving through the Great lakes region will result in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The shower and thunderstorm activity will taper off this evening with some partial clearing developing. However, MVFR to IFR clouds will redevelop later tonight and persist into Monday morning. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...KC/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL