114
FXUS61 KILN 050000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through Friday. The area looks to dry out over the
weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As the threat along the south decreases, attention will shift
to an increasing threat across eastern Indiana, western Ohio,
and southward toward the greater Cincinnati area. A weak
surface low will help to trigger an expanding area of showers
and thunderstorms due to the increased convergence within the
cyclonic flow. Depending on how much instability is available,
updrafts may be strong enough to take advantage of the
strengthening deep layer flow. This would support a few damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two with the more organized
storms. Even if the severe weather threat ultimately ends up
lower, there will still be decent coverage in shower and storms,
potentially lingering into the late evening hours.

Can`t rule out some locally heavy rainfall given the moisture
rich environment.

Behind the weak low pressure, drier conditions are expected
through the overnight with the primary frontal boundary still
well off the west. This will finally sweep through the area late
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and
moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig
into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday. This will
provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day with the passage of the front moving through during the
evening hours. There will likely be some cloud cover extending
northward from convection to the south so thunderstorm coverage
is expected to be quite limited during the first part of the
day.

As the front approaches during the afternoon and evening,
diurnal heating will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms
across the area. Due to the lack of strong and focused forcing,
development is expected to be quite disorganized with the best
potential for stronger storms across and east of the Scioto
River Valley region.

Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the
overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will result in dry conditions through Monday.
Temperatures will start off a bit below normal on Saturday and
warm to above normal by Monday. A short wave will track out of
the central part of the country and cross the region late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Mid level
troughing will persist beyond this time although surface ridging
will eventually build in. This will lead to nearly seasonal
temperatures and another generally dry period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Focus in the TAF period includes an initial period of breezy
showers early in the period (and perhaps a storm), followed by
another bout of low stratus/fog late tonight into early Friday
morning.

The latest HRRR has storm tops increasing a bit over the next
two hours as our developing line of showers shifts east toward
central Ohio. This could bring a better chance of thunder into
the TAFs for ILN and the Columbus terminals... though can`t rule
it out at DAY and CVG/LUK either.

Have leaned toward this morning`s conditions (persistence) as
far as the low stratus late tonight. Guidance again shows more
of an MVFR base... however, in this very moist environment
believe formation will initially be below 1,000 feet AGL before
lifting some with heating.

Heading into Friday afternoon, a disturbance will bring another
good chance of showers to the terminals. Thunder will be
possible, which will be introduced in future updates as
confidence improves.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...