363
FXUS61 KILN 050201
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1001 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through Friday. The area looks to dry out over the
weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Continue to see a weak boundary traversing our CWA causing
mostly showers. The boundary will shift off to the east shortly
after midnight leaving another quiet night. Guidance is
signaling for low cloud and patchy fog development late, so will
continue to keep clouds in the forecast through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and
moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig
into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday. This will
provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day with the passage of the front moving through during the
evening hours. There will likely be some cloud cover extending
northward from convection to the south so thunderstorm coverage
is expected to be quite limited during the first part of the
day.

As the front approaches during the afternoon and evening,
diurnal heating will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms
across the area. Due to the lack of strong and focused forcing,
development is expected to be quite disorganized with the best
potential for stronger storms across and east of the Scioto
River Valley region.

Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the
overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will result in dry conditions through Monday.
Temperatures will start off a bit below normal on Saturday and
warm to above normal by Monday. A short wave will track out of
the central part of the country and cross the region late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Mid level
troughing will persist beyond this time although surface ridging
will eventually build in. This will lead to nearly seasonal
temperatures and another generally dry period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Focus in the TAF period includes an initial period of breezy
showers early in the period (and perhaps a storm), followed by
another bout of low stratus/fog late tonight into early Friday
morning.

The latest HRRR has storm tops increasing a bit over the next
two hours as our developing line of showers shifts east toward
central Ohio. This could bring a better chance of thunder into
the TAFs for ILN and the Columbus terminals... though can`t rule
it out at DAY and CVG/LUK either.

Have leaned toward this morning`s conditions (persistence) as
far as the low stratus late tonight. Guidance again shows more
of an MVFR base... however, in this very moist environment
believe formation will initially be below 1,000 feet AGL before
lifting some with heating.

Heading into Friday afternoon, a disturbance will bring another
good chance of showers to the terminals. Thunder will be
possible, which will be introduced in future updates as
confidence improves.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...