199
FXUS62 KILM 060808
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
408 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and humidity will persist today along with a
better chance of showers and storms. The rainier than normal
pattern should persist through most of next week as a front
stalls inland with a bit of a break in the heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stalled cold front will stay to our west through the day,
enhancing coverage of afternoon/evening convection near and west of
I-95. At the same time, highs away from the coast are expected to
reach near 100F again (with possible record highs at KLBT/KFLO),
heat indices 105-110. The difficulty regarding Heat Advisory vs
Excessive Heat Warning will be the effects of rain, clouds, and
mixing. Opted to raise an Excessive Heat Warning for Robeson
and Bladen counties where probabilities of sustained heat
indices at or above 110 were highest, but it`s hard to rule out
that other spots inland could briefly reach 110 as well. Perhaps
this could be better evaluated with subsequent updates to the
forecast later in the morning. The sea breeze will limit warming
at the coast, where a Heat Advisory has not been raised.
Rainfall amounts/location will also likely influence fog
formation overnight, as winds should become calm roughly after
midnight with mostly dry conditions. Lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Bit cooler with above normal rain chances inland
*No significant impacts expected

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:

A stalled front inland along with plentiful moisture and some upper
forcing will lead to higher than normal rain chances inland with
coastal areas likely to miss out on most of the rain given the
onshore flow/sea breeze.

Temps are a bit tricky though given some uncertainty in rain/cloud
coverage but should generally be near to maybe slightly above
normal. Fortunately peak heat indices should stay below Heat
Advisory levels (105 degrees).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights:
*Hot/humid weather continues with Heat Advisories possible each
 day inland, mainly through Thursday
*Much-needed rainfall possible, especially inland

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:

A more unsettled pattern than normal is likely given a stalled
front/trough inland while Atlantic high pressure centered to the
east prevails. Severe storms will only be a low threat with
localized flooding likely a slightly bigger threat. Although
temps look to be held down a bit closer to normal the high
dewpoints could still push heat indices above Heat Advisory
levels (105-109 degrees) each afternoon away from the coast,
mainly through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Winds will generally be
near 5-10 kts tonight. KILM and KCRE have been having periodic
gusts near 20 kts so increased sustained winds for those
terminals. Highest chances for showers/storms are at inland
terminals during the late afternoon and evening near a stalled
front. Lowered VSBYs and CIGs could bring MVFR and perhaps
brief IFR restrictions to KLBT/KFLO. Otherwise, expecting a sea
breeze to move through the coastal terminals around 15-16Z with
only a slight chance of showers/storms.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of
convection. A cold front is forecast to stall across the
Piedmont amidst plenty of moisture, which should provide a
greater coverage of convection than normal, particularly for the
inland terminals. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible
each morning, especially where precip falls the previous day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions expected. SSW winds 15-20 kts
will yield a wind wave 2-3 ft at 4-5 seconds with a SE long period
swell at 2 ft and 8-9 seconds. Wave heights should be 2-3 ft amidst
the competing swells.

Sunday through Wednesday...Atlantic high pressure will prevail with
a stalled front inland. The pretty typical summertime pattern will
lead to periodic higher winds, mainly each afternoon/evening due to
the sea breeze and nocturnal surging. However, with winds mostly
staying below 20 kt and seas mostly 3 ft or less we are not
expecting any Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ087-096.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ099-105-107-109.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/LEW