479
FXUS63 KICT 161942
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
242 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening

- Hot and humid Saturday with heat indices in the 105F range along
the OK State Line

- Next chance for rain will Sunday night and into Monday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A weak frontal system is currently draped across Central Kansas this
afternoon.  An area of convection is already moving off the high
plains and approaching the Smokey Hills.  Some of this activity is
severe and is expected to continue through the afternoon.  Low level
is shear is rather good with hodographs having a good "fish hook"
look to them.  925mb-850mb moisture is rather good in Southwest
through South Central Kansas this afternoon.  This is likely to be
the main area where thunderstorms will develop.  CAPE vales are in
the 1700-2000 J/Kg range and lapse rates are in the 5C-7C/1000ft
range. While this is decent, it is not great so it will not inhibit
thunderstorm activity but is will not really help it either. All
this said, severe thunderstorms are expected as the low level shear
and moisture thickness values can`t be ignored.  300mb jet stream
winds are in the 55kt-70kt range which is better than yesterday and
will help hail development.  At this time, could see hail up to 2
1/2 inches and winds up to 75 mph with the strongest storms. South
Central Kansas also appears to have the best chances for the severe
weather during the mid to late afternoon.

Saturday will have little to no chance for rain as ridging and
subsidence builds into the region.  Winds will be light and out of
the east and southeast.  Tds look to remain in the low 70s across
the region and air temperatures in the 90s.  Areas along the
Oklahoma State line are likely to be in the upper 90s.  Given the
high air temperatures and Tds in the 70s, heat indices are likely to
be in the 103F to 108F range.  As such, a heat advisory was issued
for the Southern tier of counties for Saturday afternoon.

Sunday and into Monday, a frontal system will be pushing through the
region.  Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible over much
of the region.  Timing and intensity of this activity is in doubt
but most of the ensembles at this time are pushing the main axis of
activity to the west of the region.  This will bring the
temperatures down Monday and will likely keep temperatures just a
shade below normal for this time of year through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected for this TAF period.
Thunderstorms will be possible through 06Z tonight. Some of
these storms could be severe with winds up to 70kts. That said,
do not expect the terminals to see this level of wind but also
can`t rule it out. Will handle changes with AMDs. After 06Z to
08Z, the thunderstorm activity will abate and leave VFR
conditions for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ082-083-
091>093-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ELM