475
FXUS63 KICT 300536
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storms late this afternoon-evening
  across far southern and southeast KS; better chances
  developing overnight into Sunday morning generally along/west
  of the Flint Hills.

- Cooler Sunday.

- Active weather pattern thunderstorm-wise Sunday night-early
  Monday, and again late Tuesday through next week.

- Possible heat advisory headlines once again Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Cooler and drier by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A strong cold front is
currently in the process of stalling over far southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma, and will be a focus for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening over far southern and
southeast Kansas. Despite minimal upper support and warm mid-level
temperatures, strong frontal convergence combined with very rich
boundary layer moisture and strong surface heating should be enough
to initiate storms. The combination of strong instability with
modest to weak deep layer shear should support multi-cells with weak
supercell structures. Isolated large hail is possible, although
thinking the greater severe risk will be damaging downburst winds
given impressive downdraft CAPE. Additionally, cannot rule out a
landspout tornado or two given the strong/fat instability, low-level
CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and low-level vorticity along the
slow-moving frontal zone. Furthermore, locally intense rainfall
rates exceeding 1-2+ inches per hour are likely given the above
average precipitable waters. This could support localized flash
flooding.

OVERNIGHT--SUNDAY...Increasing warm advection and moisture transport
north of the surface front around 850-700mb should support a gradual
uptick in showers/thunderstorms overnight through Sunday morning.
Thinking chances will probably be highest generally along and west
of the Flint Hills. While limited instability and shear should
prevent severe storms, a few of the stronger cores could support
marginally severe hail. However, thinking the primary threat will be
pockets of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding, given the
continued rich precipitable water values and numerous shower/storm
coverage. HREF output suggests the potential for isolated 2-4+ inch
amounts through Sunday morning. Temperature-wise, increased clouds
and a post-frontal airmass should keep Sunday temperatures
seasonably cool to even below average.

MONDAY--FRIDAY...The heat and humidity build back north across the
region for Monday and Tuesday, with heat headlines once again
possible, as afternoon through early evening heat indices climb into
the 100-108 degree range. Additionally, model consensus progresses a
front south into the region by late Tuesday, and stalls it across
the region through late week. This, along with a few seasonably
strong/deep upper troughs, will support periodic thunderstorm
chances across the region late Tuesday through the end of the week.
A seasonable combination of instability and deep layer shear should
support strong to severe storm chances, along with locally heavy
rainfall.

NEXT WEEKEND...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports cooler
and mostly dry weather by next Friday-Saturday, with lower dewpoints
and seasonably cool to below average temperatures, as upper
troughing deepens over the central and eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across portions
of central and south central KS. The highest coverage should
remain across south central KS through sunrise. More-widespread
convection is expected after 10-12Z across central KS. The
daytime convection Sunday should dwindle by mid to late
afternoon. Winds will remain relatively light and from
the northeast.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRB