592
FXUS63 KICT 301747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Training storms across south central KS this morning resulting in
  localized flooding concerns

- Additional storms expected today across central KS

- Much cooler today; heat returns Monday and Tuesday

- Active weather pattern continues into next week including the
  chance for severe storms Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

As of 3 AM, a complex, yet significant, mesoscale setup was
emerging across southern KS. A stalled surface frontal zone
extended from west TX into central OK and northeast from there.
Latest VWP from ICT reveals nearly 180 degrees of veering from
925 through 700 mb, suggesting moderate to strong WAA occurring.
Elevated instability upwards of 2000 J/kg is analyzed across
southern KS with PW values remain near/above 2". All of these
ingredients sum up to the likelihood for heavy rainfall. To
further enhance the potential for flooding, mean storm motions
are parallel to the convergence zone. Given the latest radar
and satellite trends with a persistent axis of convection across
portions of south central KS, hoisted a Flood Watch through
noon.

While WAA may decrease through the morning hours, a remnant MCV
across northeastern NM is forecast to lift into KS today. This
should result in additional showers and storms, especially across
central KS. Again, the high PW environment may support heavy
rainfall. The showers/storms and associated cloud cover will provide
heat relief area-wide today with temperatures in the 70s/80s.

The heat will return area-wide Monday and Tuesday as the front
retreats northward and midlevel ridging amplifies overhead.
Temperatures will once again approach the 100 degree mark. A
northern stream trough will shunt the frontal zone southward into
our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will set the stage for
another break from the heat and additional storm chances through
Thursday. The greatest chance for severe storms appears to arrive
Tuesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Complex and difficult TAF cycle this time around. Areas of
showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected through
much of the TAF period. Main threat will be heavy rain which
may bring MVFR VSBYs to a few terminals. Confidence is too low
at this time to put it in the TAF but the chance is there. As
such, most areas will remain VFR despite the rain and potential
thunderstorm activity. During the night, there will be another
chance for some shower and thunderstorm activity. KICT, KHUT and
KSLN are the most likely terminals to see potential
thunderstorm activity during the night. Confidence with this
activity is fairly low at this point so handled it with PROB30s
for this TAF cycle. Severe weather is generally not expected
for this TAF period.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRB
AVIATION...ELM