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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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115 FXUS63 KICT 032341 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 641 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this evening and tonight. Best severe wind potential will be over central Kansas, best heavy rainfall and flooding potential will be over southeast Kansas. - Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms possible Thursday afternoon-evening, mainly along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. - Next chances for thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday night. - Seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures expected the next 7-10 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 THIS AFTERNOON--EARLY EVENING...Currently, widespread showers with a few embedded claps of thunder are impacting the region, within a region of rich mid-level moisture and mid-level warm advection ahead of an approaching upper trough. While much of this activity will contain relatively light rainfall rates, some localized enhancement is likely within some of the more robust convection, supporting potentially localized minor flooding. THIS EVENING--EARLY THURSDAY...As the evening progresses, thinking there`ll be an uptick in thunderstorm chances/coverage, ahead of the approaching upper trough. There will be two areas we`ll be monitoring...the first will be thunderstorms rolling east off the High Plains emanating from a lee trough, and the 2nd will be gradual thunderstorm development over central and eastern Kansas, as a strengthening low-level jet impinges on a stalled frontal zone to the south. Poor lapse rates should keep large hail potential low, although decent deep layer shear could support a few storms with marginally severe hail. Additionally, the stronger cells could produce locally severe wind gusts, especially associated with the activity rolling east off the High Plains, closest to better DCAPE values. Probably the greatest concern later this evening through early Thursday will be locally intense rainfall rates and flooding potential, especially over southeast Kansas. Ingredients appear to be coming together for a relatively narrow swath of very heavy rainfall, aided by a deep monsoonal moisture fetch and associated very high precipitable waters, an east-west oriented 850mb baroclinic zone, and favorable jet dynamics in the right entrance region. Consequently, issued a Flood Watch for Greenwood and Elk counties on east. Short-range guidance suggests these locations have the highest probability of seeing those training cells and very heavy rainfall, where localized amounts of 2-4+ inches are possible. THURSDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Thinking the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be generally along and southeast of the KS Turnpike, as a strong cold front slices southeast through the region. The primary threats will be hail and wind, along with locally heavy rainfall. SATURDAY--SUNDAY NIGHT...Thunderstorm chances increase across the region, as a seasonably strong upper trough approaches from the northwest, along with an associated frontal zone. Thinking the greatest threats will be severe wind, marginally severe hail, and locally heavy rainfall. TEMPERATURES...With upper troughing dominating the picture across portions of the central and eastern CONUS, thinking temperatures the next 7-10 days will be mostly seasonable to even seasonably cool, with forecast high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Main concern will be the thunderstorm development later in the TAF period. For the most part, VFR and MVFR conditions are expected for the first few hours. By 05Z, thunderstorms will begin to enter the region with KRSL and KGBD the first terminals to likely see thunderstorm activity. KSLN, KHUT and KICT will follow a few hours later. KCNU is the exception this evening and will likely see on and off thunderstorm activity. KRSL and KSLN are the most likely terminals to see higher winds with 40Kt winds possible for a brief period of time from 05Z and 08Z tonight. By 10Z, all terminals are expected to be clear of any thunderstorms with KCNU likely to be last terminal to clear. After 10Z, VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ070>072-094>096. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ELM