958
FXUS64 KHUN 051550
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1050 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

An upper level ridge will continue to progress over the eastern
US today; however, an upper low over the northeastern Gulf as well
as Tropical Storm Chantal off the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts look to take hold over the Deep South and push the
influence of the ridge to the north over the Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will maintain its hold over the
Appalachians until TS Chantal moves over the Carolinas (late
weekend), shunting this feature to the northeast.

For the Tennessee Valley, drier air on the western side of TS
Chantal looks to filter into NE AL later today through tonight.
This will result in slightly less muggy conditions that we`ve seen
recently. Moisture will still be fairly elevated west of I-65,
though. Hi-Res guidance suggests that a few showers/storms will
pop up over the TN Valley today, but wane with the loss of daytime
heating. With lingering outflows from storms around the region
yesterday, this scenario seems entirely plausible this afternoon.
Guidance indicates bulk shear values top out around 20 knots at
best this afternoon and early this evening; therefore, organized,
severe weather is not anticipated. But, with ample instability and
DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, would not be shocked to see
a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds to 40-50
mph this afternoon. With moisture values greater west of I-65,
this seems more likely to happen over these areas. Regardless, for
those with outdoor plans, please remember storm and lightning
safety - when thunder roars, go indoors! See a flash, dash inside!

Even with low (10-15%) chances of showers/storms this afternoon,
highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s for most
locations. Although, for the higher elevations of northeast
Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee, highs in the upper 80s
will be common. With higher moisture west of I-65, heat indices
are expected to reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees this
afternoon. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent
breaks in the shade if you have outdoor plans!

Any showers/storms that occur will diminish this evening with the
loss of daytime heating, with no rain overnight. Confidence is
low in the occurrence of any fog (especially east of I-65), but
this will be monitored. Lastly, lows are forecast to drop into the
upper 60s to lower 70s late tonight into early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The upper low over the northeastern Gulf is shown by guidance to
retrograde west through Monday, with TS Chantal weakening into a
Tropical Depression and moving over the eastern portion of North
Carolina and Virginia during this time. Meanwhile, an upper
shortwave trough looks to progress slowly over the Midwest towards
the Ohio Valley by Monday before weakening. At the surface, a
cold front moves over the Midwest on Sunday, then over the Ohio
Valley by Monday morning. This feature will then approach the
Tennessee Valley through the day. Overall, little to no rain
chances are forecast on Sunday; although, would not be surprised
if a few showers/storms formed in the afternoon based on trends
from Friday the 4th as well as the current thinking for today.
This will be monitored, but have very low (10%) chances of
showers/storms Sunday afternoon.

On Monday, chances of showers/storms increase to be low to medium
(15-30%) as the aforementioned front approaches the region. Ample
instability with highs reaching the lower to mid 90s in most
locations as well as model DCAPE values between 1000-1300 J/kg
will prompt another day with the potential for a few stronger
storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds. With bulk shear
below 20 knots, no severe weather is anticipated. With highs in
the lower to mid 90s both Sunday and Monday and increasing
moisture ahead of the surface cold front, heat indices are
expected to reach the upper 90s to around 102 degrees by Monday
afternoon. Although this is below Heat Advisory criteria, it will
still be hot. Please stay safe and remember heat safety!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure will begin to break down just of the Atlantic coast
and begin building more over the Gulf to begin the work week.
This will ultimately result in increasing chances for diurnally
driven showers and storms beginning Monday. A weak frontal
boundary may begin to approach the area as early as Tuesday into
Wednesday, with PoPs increasing to 40-60% mainly focused during
the afternoon and evening hours. Chances will increase closer to
the frontal boundary on Thursday when it appears the front will
push through the TN Valley. Although not currently outlooked for
severe weather, some of these storms could be strong especially
toward the later half of the week. Heat will continue to be a
threat as afternoon heat indices remain between 100 and 105 each
day. Flooding may have to be monitored towards the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Prevailing VFR flight weather conditions are forecast at KMSL and
KHSV. Isolated SHRA or TSRA will develop by 17Z, but the
probability is too low to include at either TAF site.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...17