575
FXUS64 KHUN 300244
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
944 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The showers and thunderstorms that affected mainly eastern
portions of the area earlier this evening/afternoon have
dissipated. The sheared upr wave that helped to instigate this
activity has moved southward, while the loss of daytime heating
likewise contributed. Otherwise, there is little in the way to
help generate any further shower activity overnight. Upstream and
to our NW, a band of showers/thunderstorms has developed in the
southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley this evening as a
cold front continues to advance southward through that area.
Current estimated motion along with the latest hi-res CAMs would
not support its movement of into our area later tonight, and POPs
were lowered a little. At this time, it looks as though the
earliest development and/or movement of any showers/storms in our
area would occur mainly after 12Z, and perhaps closer to 14-15Z.
Otherwise, few edits were made to the ongoing forecast.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Diurnal showers and storms will likely fire up again after
sunrise on Sunday. Morning showers will likely be very scattered
in nature with low rain chances included (20-30%) to reflect this.
With partly cloudy skies and dew points remaining in the mid to
upper 70s, heat index values will meet criteria for an additional
Heat Advisory. Sunday`s Heat Advisory will be in effect for the
whole area through 7 PM.

Ahead of an approaching cold front, PoP`s increase to 60-70% by
noon on Sunday and remain elevated until after sunset. Severe
indices for tomorrow afternoon look pretty poor favoring more
general thunderstorms with some potentially becoming strong.
Storms should wane as the sun sets with skies clearing as the
front moves through. In the wake of the frontal passage, a much
drier and cooler air mass will filter in from the north giving us
some brief relief from the heat. Dewpoints will fall to the 50s
with high temps in the low 90s on Monday. This will be short lived
however as mid 90 temps and 70+ dewpoints build back in by
Tuesday thanks to the return of high pressure and southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The heat and humidity will return mid to late week, including the
4th of July holiday as a strong mid/upper ridge will build into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, extending southward into the
Tennessee Valley. This will keep stalled boundaries (and their
focus for convection) well south along the Gulf Coast and allow a
hot/humid air mass to settle into the region. This will push
daytime highs into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values
easily into the 100-105 degree range by Tuesday and potentially
above 105 degrees (Advisory criteria) for Wednesday and Thursday
(4th of July). Additional heat products may be needed later next
week. Low/medium chances (20-40%) for diurnally driven convection
will be present each day, but most locations will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Predominant VFR conditions likely for KHSV and KMSL terminals
through ~16Z. A cold front moving southward into the area will
begin to help generate SHRA/TSRA activity in the area afterward.
PROB30 groups were used to address uncertainty in coverage of
TSRA in the latest TAFs. Confidence is higher in coverage of SHRA
activity, and prevailing SHRA are forecast in TAFs after 18Z. TSRA
will be locally heavy, and vis would likely be reduced to MVFR or
lower in heavier cells after ~19Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...KDW