637
FXUS64 KHUN 121152
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
652 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Early morning observations show a mid level stratus deck
associated with a decaying thunderstorm complex that tracked
through eastern OK and AR earlier yesterday. Have noted some light
returns on radar across northern MS, but this is likely virga and
not reaching the ground given limited low level moisture.
Temperatures have cooled to the low to mid 60s across much of the
area and are expected to remain that way into the morning hours.

Will begin a bit of a pattern shift today, as the upper trough
over the eastern CONUS begins to slide off the Atlantic Coast and
broad ridging builds over the Central Plains. This will set up a
transition from zonal to northwesterly flow aloft, while high
pressure anchors near the ArkLaTex region. Won`t feel much of a
change in sensible weather today, as highs look only a degree or
two warmer than what we saw yesterday, topping out in the mid to
upper 80s with a few locations reaching the 90 degree mark. Will
see a slight uptick in clouds later in the afternoon as better
moisture begins to advect into the lower MS River Valley and into
the Tennessee Valley. Will maintain a dry forecast through the
afternoon with the better moisture and forcing remaining well to
our west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Increasing dewpoints will mean an increase in low temperatures,
unfortunate for those enjoying this early taste of fall during the
overnight hours. Expect temperatures to bottom out largely in the
mid to upper 60s, with a few locations approaching the lower 60s
in the higher terrain. Very similar to last night, could see some
light rain or virga approach the area overnight due to a decaying
thunderstorm complex expected to track across eastern OK and
central AR today. With large scale subsidence likely remaining
the dominant factor locally and given the westward position of the
upper ridge, do think it will be tough to see much in the way of
rain over the Tennessee Valley tonight, so have left the forecast
dry for now until we gain a better sense of where exactly these
showers/storms track once they hit northern MS.

The upper ridge will shift east through Wednesday, resulting in
warming temperatures and increasing humidity through mid-week.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Tuesday and without
any real sign of forcing, have kept the forecast dry through
Tuesday night. Guidance remains consistent in bringing an axis of
better moisture to the area by Wednesday afternoon, resulting in
increasing cloud cover and low chances (20-30%) for shower/storms
during peak heating hours. With the increase in cloud cover, temps
may struggle to reach above the 90 degree mark on Wednesday.
Overnight lows range from the mid 60s to low 70s through the
remainder of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Upper level ridging will move into the Southeast to start the long
term; however, multiple upper waves are shown by guidance to move
over the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys from late week through the
weekend. At the surface, a low pressure system is slated to move
over the central CONUS through midweek and then the Great Lakes
through late week. A trailing front from this system may then
progress over the region over the weekend. As has been the trend the
past couple of days, this pattern will result in daily chances
(20-30%) of showers and storms from Thursday through Sunday. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this point, but we`ll monitor for any
signs of potential MCS activity that could bring some damaging winds
and heavy rain.

Additionally, high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to
mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Lows will also be warm, in the lower to
mid 70s. Although shower/storm chances have tempered highs a bit
(trended cooler), heat index values are currently forecast to mainly
range between 96-103 degrees during this time (below Heat Advisory
criteria). Although, some locations over far northwest Alabama may
see heat indices a bit warmer. The NWS HeatRisk tool outlooks most of
our area in a moderate risk of heat related illness both days, with
some spots over north-central Alabama in a major risk on Friday.
Overall, this will be something to watch over the coming days in case
temperatures trend warmer and heat products become necessary.
Regardless, the summer heat is not over yet, so please remember heat
safety! Make sure to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks in the
shade if working or playing outside. By next weekend, highs are
forecast to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, with few to
scattered high clouds and light northerly winds expected.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25