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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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620 FXUS64 KHUN 131712 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1212 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 830 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Mostly sunny and very warm conditions are forecast again today as we remain under the influence of the upper high pressure axis that is centered over the ArkLaTex. Our mean flow aloft will continue to remain out of the WNW/NW which will reinforce the drier air at the mid-levels. This is seen in model soundings that are quite dry and indicate a stout capping inversion between 800-700 mb that will be very tough to break. Thus, our prospects for convection remain extremely low, with no available CAPE for storms. Other than a few to scattered decks Cu in the afternoon, mostly sunny conditions will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 90s -- with a few mid 90s possible across northern Alabama. A MCS well to our west in KS/MO that will be decaying this morning could provide some additional cirrus late in the day, but think any hindrance to heating for this will be minimal. Dewpoints will be a hare higher today, but slightly warmer temperatures will also knock our RH values into the 40-45 percent range again. Definitely warmer, but certainly not the worst that mid-August can offer as far as heat/humidity impacts are concerned. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The aforementioned ridge will continue pushing east through the remainder of the work week, and will result in increasing heat, moisture, and rain chances. As dewpoints climb back into the 70s toward mid-week, overnight lows will return to the warm side, only falling to the low to mid 70s. Humidity will climb through Thursday, resulting in low chances (10-20%) for showers/thunderstorms during peak heating hours mainly west of I-65 on Wednesday then over the entire area on Thursday as the upper ridge centers over the lower MS River Valley and into the TN Valley. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s with heat indices near or just above 100 degrees on Thursday. This places much of the area in a moderate HeatRisk, signaling caution to those that are sensitive to heat or without proper cooling means. Will have to monitor trends in the eastward progression of the trough in case the chances of exceeding Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees looks more probable. For now, just something to be aware of as we head toward the later half of the week. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 An upper shortwave trough is slated to progress from the Midwest down into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys from Friday through early Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front looks to approach the region from the northwest on Friday, then traverse the area sometime Saturday evening or overnight. High pressure is then shown to build into the Tennessee Valley early next week. This pattern will lead to medium (40-50%) chances of showers and storms on Friday, with low to medium (30-40%) chances on Saturday. Sufficient bulk shear and instability may lead to at least some stronger storms ahead of the front on Friday. Additionally, bulk shear values increase Saturday afternoon and evening. Overall, confidence on severe weather for Friday and/or Saturday is low at this time, but we`ll keep an eye on these trends with subsequent updates. Low chances of lingering showers and storms then comprise Sunday, with drier weather returning early next week. Temperatures will be warm to start, but will overall follow a downward trend through the long term. Highs in the lower to mid 90s are anticipated Friday and Saturday, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday night. The hottest day of the long term forecast looks to be Friday, with heat indices potentially reaching Heat Advisory criteria over portions of far northwestern Alabama. Most of our local area is highlighted in a moderate risk of heat- related illness from the NWS HeatRisk tool, with some spots over northwest and north- central Alabama in a major risk. Will continue to monitor in case a Heat Advisory becomes necessary; but, in the meantime, please remember heat safety. Stay hydrated, wear light-colored, loose- fitting clothes, and take frequent breaks in the shade. Temperatures then begin to decrease a bit after cold FROPA Saturday evening/night. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Sunday and Monday, with lows in the mid to upper 60s for most locations by Monday night. It`ll also be less muggy by Monday, with dew points dropping into the 60s (versus dew points in the lower 70s like on Friday). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period at both terminals, with light winds. Scattered Cu will dissipate after sunset resulting in a mostly clear sky. Late in the period, on Wednesday morning, clouds will increase as the remnants of an MCS over the Plains attempt to work its way into the area. Confidence was too low to add a mention of SHRA/TSRA just yet, but we will continue to watch this trend over the course of the evening hours && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...AMP.24