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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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501 FXUS64 KHUN 140210 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 910 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 910 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 No major changes to the near term forecast this evening. We continue to watch the deterioration of an MCS over southern Missouri and northeast Arkansas. Scattered shower activity associated with this feature will likely continue to the southeast and move into northwest Alabama very late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Any rainfall will be very light. Additional cloud cover and influx of moisture over northwest Alabama will moderate low temps overnight with areas west of I-65 seeing lows in the upper 60s to low 70s with areas east of I-65 dropping into the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Subtle changes to our forecast coming for Wednesday and Thursday as the center of a mid/upper ridge pivots into the ArkLaTex region, placing the Tennessee Valley under more pronounced NW flow aloft. Another MCS will form tonight across the central Plains and Ozarks and likely be approaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12z. Hi-Res guidance is now hinting that additional showers and a few thunderstorms will form along a remnant outflow boundary over western Tennessee and northern Mississippi -- eventually drift SE toward portions of northern and central Alabama during the morning through the early to mid-afternoon. Little modification to the relatively drier and more stable air mass will have taken place overnight. Thus, the intensity of any convection that does form upstream should be diminishing as it moves into our area. However, a glance at model soundings do suggest some limited moisture with a little SBCAPE that would support a general thunderstorm or two. Have capped PoPs at 20-30% given the uncertainties about how widespread showers/storms will be in our area on Wednesday, but will need to continue to watch mesoscale and environmental trends this evening and overnight. The mid/upper ridge will amplify ever so slightly to the east on Thursday, which may serve to suppress convection across our area for the most part. Model soundings indicate a drier profile than Wednesday, but do hint at a modest amount of SBCAPE developing by the afternoon during peak heating in the low to mid 90s. A lingering outflow boundary could serve as a focus for a few showers or storms during the afternoon and for this reason felt low chance (20%) PoPs were warranted. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 An upper shortwave trough is slated to progress from the Midwest down into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys from Friday through early Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front looks to approach the region from the northwest on Friday, then traverse the area sometime Saturday evening or overnight. High pressure is then shown to build into the Tennessee Valley early next week. This pattern will lead to medium (40-50%) chances of showers and storms on Friday, with low to medium (30-40%) chances on Saturday. Sufficient bulk shear and instability may lead to at least some stronger storms ahead of the front on Friday. Additionally, bulk shear values increase Saturday afternoon and evening. Overall, confidence on severe weather for Friday and/or Saturday is low at this time, but we`ll keep an eye on these trends with subsequent updates. Low chances of lingering showers and storms then comprise Sunday, with drier weather returning early next week. Temperatures will be warm to start, but will overall follow a downward trend through the long term. Highs in the lower to mid 90s are anticipated Friday and Saturday, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday night. The hottest day of the long term forecast looks to be Friday, with heat indices potentially reaching Heat Advisory criteria over portions of far northwestern Alabama. Most of our local area is highlighted in a moderate risk of heat- related illness from the NWS HeatRisk tool, with some spots over northwest and north- central Alabama in a major risk. Will continue to monitor in case a Heat Advisory becomes necessary; but, in the meantime, please remember heat safety. Stay hydrated, wear light-colored, loose- fitting clothes, and take frequent breaks in the shade. Temperatures then begin to decrease a bit after cold FROPA Saturday evening/night. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Sunday and Monday, with lows in the mid to upper 60s for most locations by Monday night. It`ll also be less muggy by Monday, with dew points dropping into the 60s (versus dew points in the lower 70s like on Friday). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Afternoon cumulus field continues to deteriorate leaving primarily SCT-BKN mid and high clouds at or above 9k feet. An area of showers will progress into northwest Alabama early Wednesday morning and have included VCSH at KMSL between 14/14z-14/20z as confidence in coverage remains low. SCT clouds at 4k-7k feet will accompany this activity, decreasing in coverage late in the period. Winds remain light at 8 knots or less. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KG SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...KG