632
FXUS64 KHUN 111844
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
144 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Thunderstorms should gradually taper off after sunset and low
chances (10% or less) remain overnight. As cloud cover scatters
and winds become light/variable, a low to medium chance of patchy
fog will be possible. Confidence on fog formation will be highest
in areas where rainfall is observed this afternoon into this
evening. Any fog that forms should dissipate shortly after
sunrise. Otherwise, low temperatures are forecast to drop into the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Heat gradually increases through the weekend as high temperatures
reach the mid 90s by Sunday with heat indices in the 98-105 range.
Heat products may be considered in future updates, however, the
105 degree areas continue to look localized/not widespread enough
for consideration of any products at this time. Despite this, we
continue to urge everyone to remain hydrated and use sun
protection if spending any time outdoors.

Daily, medium thunderstorm chances (40-60%) continue through the
short term period as a series of upper level shortwaves continues
to move eastward through the area. During each afternoon, during
peak heating, coverage of showers/storms will increase and some
stronger storms may be capable of producing gusty winds (up to
40-50 mph) in addition to heavy rainfall and lightning. Lack of
shear through the weekend will likely dissuade severe development.
However, there is a low chance of a stronger thunderstorm over
performing- leading to severe formation with the threat of
damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will continue to be our primary
concern (in addition to heat) as PWAT values reach 1.8-2.0"
Saturday and Sunday, which near or above the 90th percentile
sounding climatology per OHX. Storm motion will continue to be
relatively slow (not near stationary) with the potential for
backbuilding. While we are not currently outlooked for any
excessive rainfall from WPC, a low risk of flash flooding remains
through Sunday. On Monday, a cold front (stemming from a far
northeastern sfc low) is forecast to approach from the northwest.
However, models are showing it weakening before reaching our area.
Have continued with blended guidance for now and kept in low to
medium PoPs, primarily in the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Bottom line up front: Despite the chance for showers and
thunderstorms each day, as heat increases, it will push the TN
Valley near Heat Advisory criteria next week.

High pressure over FL retrogrades early next week and builds
across the Southeast. This won`t bring an abundance of sunshine,
this dirty ridge will still have enough moisture, and pull in
additional moisture to keep shower/storm chances in through mid
week. With no major focused forcing, shower/storm chances will
remain low to medium 20-50% and no severe weather is expected. The
greatest coverage is expected Monday afternoon as a front weakens
as it sinks south towards the TN Valley. Dewpoints will stay in
the low/mid 70s and with temperatures near normal in the lower
90s, heat index values will encroach Heat Advisory criteria of 105
degrees each afternoon. Will be monitoring trends to see if a
Heat Advisory will be needed, however regardless if we have an
advisory or not, heat safety will remain important. Never leave a
person or pet in a vehicle and stay hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions are forecast at both KMSL and KHSV through
the TAF period. Both sites have TEMPO groups present this
afternoon into the early evening to encompass thunderstorm chances
bringing down visibilities and ceilings. If a stronger
thunderstorm develops, an amendment may be needed to decrease
visibilities further into IFR categories. Dry conditions should
return overnight with lingering, scattered cloud cover. A low
chance of patchy fog development is possible, however, confidence
is low in this affecting the terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...HC