441
FXUS64 KHUN 071628
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A typical sultry, summer day is upon us, with latest obs indicating
temperatures generally in the mid 80s to 90 degrees and dew point
temperatures mainly in the low 70s. Heat index temperatures will
be around 100 F this afternoon, while Heat Risk values will
primarily be in the Minor to Moderate Risk categories. So, a Heat
Advisory is not in effect, but values will be fairly close. It`s
still obviously a good idea to keep the heat in mind and take
necessary precautions if outside today for prolonged periods or
engaging in strenuous physical activity. Otherwise, cu are
beginning to develop late this morning, along apparent streamline
confluent axes and in areas where moisture pooling was noted
earlier. A few pulse showers/storms could develop this afternoon
along these areas, which may tend to favor development along a
corridor generally running SW-NE from the Bankhead area through
the DCU/HSV metro and then NE to the plateau. Parameters are
somewhat mixed with regards to the risk for any strong
thunderstorms, however there are some indications that storms
could produce strong localized wind gusts which would probably be
sub-severe.

A pressure trough and associated vort maxima moving eastward
(mainly to our north) may further instigate shower/storm activity
later today. Some of this activity could move or propagate by
outflow boundary interactions towards the N/NW parts of our area
during the early/mid evening hours. Although this activity may
tend to be more concentrated, there is still a question as to how
much may eventually reach N AL and our Srn Middle TN counties.
Nevertheless, the risk for any severe weather appears to be low.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The short term period will feature a trough moving across portions
of the east CONUS, centered mainly over the Great Lakes and
Ontario/Quebec provinces. The tail end of the cold front and upr
jet will move into the TN Valley during the period, providing a
little enhanced synoptic support. Moisture pooling/convergence
ahead of the front will provide increased chances for daily
shower/thunderstorm activity, which could also linger a bit into
the nighttime period due to some additional dynamic support.
However, showers/storms will tend to be most active during daytime
heating periods. Before the deep moisture moves into the region,
steeper lapse rates on Tuesday, coincident with sufficient low-
level moisture could bring a stronger wind gust threat during the
afternoon. Otherwise, the broad scale threat for severe weather is
generally low. As deep layer moisture increases on Wednesday ahead
of the stalling front, PWs look set to climb above 2". Weather
risk will tend to shift to more of a hydro concern, with the risk
increasing for localized flash flooding especially on Wednesday
and Thursday. Due to the increased cloud cover and rainfall during
the period, air temperatures will tend to be cooler, but the humid
air mass will remain in place with dew points tending to remain in
the 70s for most locations. Nevertheless, the remains of the old
frontal boundary, along with boundaries of a mesoscale nature will
tend to provide focus for shower/storm development through the
weekend period and into early next week, although it may tend to
lessen day to day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The afore-mentioned front may essentially wash out over the region
late in the week, and with the dry continental air mass lingering
far behind in the Midwest. Thus, we`re not expecting any reprieve
in the moist/humid low-level conditions. The remaining vestiges of
the upper trough will move off to the mid-Atlantic while a sub-
tropical ridge in the SW CONUS will gradually tend to build
eastward into the region early next week. In the high moisture
environment that will still be in place (PWs ~ 1.7-2 inches),
thunderstorms will still be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall, resulting in an increased risk for localized flash
flooding lingering through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

There is a low chance of SHRA or TSRA after 18Z, but confidence
remains too low to include in either KMSL or KHSV TAF at this
time. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions are expected through
the period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...17