367
FXUS64 KHUN 051410
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
910 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 910 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Loosely organized thunderstorms are moving east through middle TN
and north central AL. These are producing a series of gust
fronts/outflows that are generating new cells downstream. So,
uneven rainfall is expected with these with some are receiving
beneficial rains, while others are not so fortunate. A wind gust
up to 38kt was reported at KMSL and 29kt more recently at KDCU.
The current thunderstorms and showers will likely exit to our
southeast by early afternoon. There is still some risk of
redevelopment along the cold front later this afternoon which is
still in IL/MO/AR, however latest HRRR data suggests this is a low
chance. Thus, have maintained only lower to medium chances later
today which blend into the evening forecast, mainly for our
southeast counties. Will maintain the Heat Advisory for now as dew
points remain high and sunshine will return behind this initial
batch of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin to diminish in
coverage and intensity around sunset this evening, but with the
cold front still to our northwest at 0Z, we will maintain a low-
medium POP for most of the region through late this evening
(highest in the southeast). Latest model consensus indicates that
the cold front will indeed clear our region early Saturday
morning, with only a low (15-20%) POP maintained for our
southeastern counties during the day to account for some
uncertainty regarding the precise location of the boundary.
Although dewpoints may fall into the l-m 60s in the postfrontal
airmass, highs should still manage to reach the lower 90s
Saturday, with lows falling into the u60s-l70s Sunday morning.
Present indications are that the front will begin to retreat
northward at some point Sunday afternoon/evening, ushering a
warmer and more humid airmass into the region once again, and we
have increased POPs both periods to account for this.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

By Monday, we will be back in a warm sectored airmass with upper
ridging centered off the Atlantic Coast and an upper trough making
its way through the central Plains and into the Midwest. The
upper ridge over the Atlantic looks to remain dominant over a
large portion of the Southeast through at least the mid-week
period, as the upper trough becomes less amplified as it moves
across the Great Lakes and into Canada. This will keep near
seasonable temperatures (highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s) in
place with daily chances for rain and storms, peaking (40-60%)
during the afternoon diurnal heating hours. The track of the
eventual remnants of Hurricane Beryl is still pretty uncertain at
this time, and low confidence exists regarding whether or not the
Tennessee Valley will see any rain from this system or not. For
that reason, have stuck with blended guidance for PoPs given that
it is at the 6-7 day range which suggest a 30-50% PoP Wednesday
and Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s
each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A broken line of convection continues to become established along
the AL-MS border this morning invof an outflow boundary preceding
a larger MCS to our NW. Current thinking is that this activity
will continue to expand in both coverage and intensity as it
spreads east-southeastward, with TEMPO groups for TSRA and MVFR
cig/vsby reductions included for MSL/12-16Z and HSV 14-18Z. AWWs
for lightning and strong wind gusts may be required during this
timeframe, as well. Redevelopment of TSRA may occur along a cold
front later this aftn as it shifts slowly southeastward into the
region, but due to uncertainties regarding the impact of late
morning clouds/precip, we have only indicated VCTS in the TAFs
thru 2Z. A period of lower stratus clouds late this evening will
be followed by clearing by 10Z as NNW winds increase to 5-10 kts
and advect a slightly drier airmass into the region prior to the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...70