789
FXUS64 KHUN 040137
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
837 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 837 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Southerly flow will remain in place tonight maintaining the warm
moist conditions. Temps will only drop into the mid to high 70s.
With dew points forecasted to remain in the low to mid 70s, the
muggy daytime conditions will prevail into the night. Cloud cover
will increase slightly from the north during the early morning
hours as a weak cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. While
the overnight forecast remains dry, the slow SE motion of the
front will support low to medium chances of scattered showers and
storms after sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Thursday will be similar to today, with highs back in the lower to
middle 90s (warmest in southern TN and northwest AL). Heat index
values will once again reach 105+ in northwest AL, with 95-105
further east. Diurnal convection appears more certain Thursday,
plus a very weak shortwave moving east from the Ozarks into KY/TN
during the afternoon may be just enough of a trigger to expand
coverage Thursday afternoon. Loss of heating will diminish
coverage during the evening. However, ongoing convection along a
cold front will drop southeast through the area during the day
Friday. Although severe weather appears to be a low risk, a few
stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy downpours appears
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Upper level high pressure will persist over the northern Gulf coast
through much of the long term period. Meanwhile, an upper trough over
the central CONUS will very slowly begin to shift to the east and
northeast over the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes regions
early next week. This pattern leaves the Tennessee Valley in a sort
of weakness into early next week, with southwesterly flow aloft. At
the surface, a cold front looks to enter the Tennessee Valley
Saturday morning and meander over the region through early next week.
High pressure looks to build in to the north, with high pressure
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. With these upper level and
surface patterns, expect daily chances of showers/storms from
Saturday through Tuesday, especially during the peak heating hours of
the afternoon. Generally, chances are low to medium (20-50%) each
day with the exception of Sunday where chances are low (15-30%).

We`ll be keeping an eye on trends for Monday and Tuesday because
model guidance suggests that shear will increase to between 20-30
knots. While model instability values are under 1000 J/kg at this
point, it`s sufficient for the development of thunderstorms. Overall,
what this means is that there is potential for a few stronger storms
Monday and Tuesday. Confidence in anything severe is low, but heavy
downpours, lightning, and gusty winds are all possible.

As for temperatures, the daily chances of showers and storms may
quell the heat a bit this weekend through early next week. Highs on
Saturday are forecast to only reach the upper 80s to around 90
degrees, whereas Sunday and Monday it`ll be a bit warmer (low 90s).
Then, on Tuesday, highs looks to be similar to Saturday. This will
result in heat indices generally in the 90s this coming weekend, then
mid 90s to around 101-102 degrees in spots Monday and Tuesday. While
these values as a whole are a fair bit below Heat Advisory criteria
(105-109 degree heat indices), please remember heat safety if you
have outdoor plans. Take breaks in the shade and drink plenty of
water!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will likely prevail at both terminals through the
duration of the TAF period. Tomorrow, diurnal scattered showers
and storms will prompt a 40% chance of rain for both terminals.
Due to to low confidence in timing and coverage of showers and
storms this has been left out of the TAF for now.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RAD