713
FXUS66 KHNX 042152
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
252 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A dangerous, long-duration heat wave will increase the risk
of heat-related illnesses through central California daily
through July 11th.

2. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the central valley,
coastal range and foothills until 12pm Friday. The portion for
southwestern Kern county remains until 6a Saturday morning with
stronger winds.

3. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through
Thursday, July 11th at 11 PM, and may need to be extended
further as the week progresses.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Saturday and Sunday continue to prove to be the hottest days of
the heat wave, as probabilities of max temperatures 110F or
above are highest region wide. However, even next Wednesday July
10th, probabilities are 25% for Merced and Madera but remain
45% for points Fresno and south. Min Temperatures also remain
75F or warmer similarly. A heat wave this intense, this long,
has not been experienced in this region for several years.
Further, heat events featuring 110F for several days do not
happen often. Heat related illnesses may become more frequent
as the heat continues, folks should have a plan to go somewhere
else if their cooling system fails or is not working
effectively.

Not many alternate scenarios to speak of until next week, as
confidence is high that impacts will remain. The strongest part
of the ridge axis does flatten or move east by next Friday per
ensembles and cluster analysis but those are two of the more
unlikely scenarios. Even if they were to occur, our heat
vulnerability will be amplified, such that temperatures in the
low 100s may not be enough relief. With that said, a slightly
cooler outcome with a slight nudge of the heat dome east, may
allow enough moisture to arrive aloft which permits
thunderstorms or dry lightning in the high Sierra.

Into next weekend, half of the scenarios show a refocus and
strengthening of the heat dome over the west coast with only 16%
of the ensemble members keeping it over the Rockies.

We should prepare for impacts that have occurred in the past
with similar events that featured several days of max temps near
110F and low temps near 75F. Many sectors of our community will
feel tangible changes to daily operations, even for a region of
the country which is accustomed to heat.

&&


.AVIATION...

MVFR and local IFR visibility due wildfire smoke will continue.
These areas of smoke may increase. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the central California interior for the next
24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning was issued earlier today, considering the
abnormal amount of grass and shrub fuels that have been the
source of rapid, quick moving grass fires. As stated by
Predictive Services in a statement released in late June, the
current fuel loading lowers the wind threshold needed to
initiate rapid spread of fires. Any activities with the onset of
the holiday celebration can be an extra layer of risk.

Winds are even stronger though through much of Kern County and
the Mojave Slopes, such that the current Red Flag Warning may
need to be extended to meet an uptick in winds arriving on
Sunday.


&&

.CLIMATE...

For the fourth of July here are the records...

For today Fresno`s record high is 112 degrees also set back in
1889. The PoE of breaking the record for Fresno today is 5
percent.

Bakersfield`s record is 114 degrees from the year 1931 and the
PoE of a new record is 1 percent.

Hanford`s record is 112 degrees from the year 1931 and the PoE
of a new record is 5 percent.

Madera`s record is 108 degrees from back in 1937 and the PoE of
a new record is 45 percent.

Merced`s record is 108 degrees from back in 1937 and the PoE of
a new record is 45 percent.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  07/04/2024 10:50
EXPIRES: 07/05/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300>322-
324-332-334>339.
Red Flag Warning until noon PDT Friday for CAZ579-580-590-591-
596.
Red Flag Warning until 6 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ597.
&&

$$

public...Mattarochia
aviation....Mattarochia

weather.gov/hanford