214
FXUS64 KHGX 040451
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1151 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure aloft over the SE CONUS will continue to bring hot
conditions across SE Texas through Thursday. NAEFS and GEFS indicate
that 500mb heights will around the 90th to 99th percentile for this
time of the year, while deterministic models show midlevel heights
ranging from 593-595 dam. 850mb temperatures will still be around 18-
21C, commonly seen with summertime heat such as this. PWs of 1.8-
2.0" and isentropic lifting continues to bring daily chances of
showers/storms, especially during the afternoon hours with support
from the sea breeze. Weak impulses rounding the bottom of the high
pressure aloft may also further enhance storm development, reflected
in recent isolated convective activity east of the Houston area.
Either way, activity remains too isolated to have any significant
impact on temperatures across the region.

Highs through Independence Day will still be in the 90s with
isolated spots approaching triple digits. Lows will be in the mid
70s to lower 80s. Heat indices will range from 105-111 during the
afternoon hours. The Heat Risk through Thursday will be Major,
suggesting that heat related illnesses will become more prevalent,
especially for those with inadequate cooling or poor hydration. WBGT
values indicate that those participating in strenuous outdoor
activities may experience Extreme heat stress. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect until 7 PM Tonight for portions of SE Texas.
Another Heat Advisory will be in effect on Thursday (from noon to 7
PM), encompassing most of SE Texas except for coastal areas.

If you have any outdoor plans for Independence Day, please make sure
to practice heat safety. Drink plenty of water and avoid strenuous
outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day. Wear
lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. Stay in an air-
conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended
in vehicles under any circumstances. Know the signs and symptoms of
heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Check with your local authorities
regarding the potential opening of any cooling centers in your area.

Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year. Do not
underestimate the danger it poses.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Conditions will remain HOT on Friday and will likely be a day of
additional heat impacts across most of Southeast Texas as high
temperatures rise a little more and range in the upper 90s to 100
deg F for much of the inland portions and in the mid to upper 90s
along the coastal regions. Heat indices of 106 to 111 deg F is
possible. Therefore, it is likely that another Heat Advisory would
be required on Friday.

Rain chances will be on the rise this weekend, as moisture
associated to the outskirts of Hurricane Beryl pushes into the Texas
coastlines. Per the 2PM EDT Advisory, Beryl is still expected to
make landfall somewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico. But
any changes in the track/intensity forecast could result in more or
less rain chances than what is currently on the forecast. Beryl
could bring high surf and strong rip currents along the
coasts/beaches, therefore, make sure to keep tabs on the latest
forecasts and make the appropriate preparations if you are planning
to visit our coastal locations this weekend and/or early next week.

During the first half of the upcoming week, there is the potential
for additional, and possibly even greater, rain chances as Beryl
makes landfall and another tropical disturbance trailing right
behind Beryl moves into the western Gulf of Mexico increasing low
level moisture transport over our region. Our rain chances will
ultimately depend on the track and size of this disturbance.
Therefore, for this forecast package, continued with a blended model
output - heaviest on the NBM solution.

Fore more information regarding weather conditions for Southeast
Texas, visit weather.gov/hgx and for information regarding tropical
cyclone activity, visit nhc.noaa.gov

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR cigs/vis likely to prevail through the TAF period. Period of
light southwest winds possible in the morning. Winds then shift to
the south and southeast by afternoon, possibly exceeding 10 knots
from IAH to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through the
next few days. Winds and seas will be on the rise later this weekend
into the first half of the upcoming week as first Hurricane Beryl
moves into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the northeastern coast of
Mexico and then another tropical disturbance follows suit a few days
later. Elevated water levels along the Bays, high surf, and strong
rip currents are possible. Moreover, associated to these two
systems, several rounds of showers and storms can be expected.

Changes in the track/intensity of Beryl and the tropical disturbance
is possible, thus, continue to monitor the progress of both systems.

24

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Hurricane Beryl continues to work its way westward across the Caribbean
Sea. The official National Hurricane Center forecast has Beryl crossing
the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and Friday night and then working its
way toward a landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border on Sunday
evening/night. Keep updated with the latest National Hurricane Center
advisories on Beryl as any significant changes in the track and/or intensity
forecast could lead to significant changes in our area forecast.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  97  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  97  80  97  79 /  40   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  92  82  91  83 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cotto