Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
368 FXUS64 KHGX 122330 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 630 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A few thunderstorms beginning to fire up along the sea breeze this afternoon. Storms are expected to remain sub-severe, but could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Expect activity to die down with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Tonight will feel pretty warm and muggy. Lows in the upper 70s to low 80s combined with the humidity will not provide much relief from today`s hot temperatures. Because of this, have opted to continue the current Heat Advisory through the overnight hours into Tuesday evening. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for the entire area Tuesday afternoon as the mid-upper level ridge continues to strengthen overhead. Increased low-level moisture in concert with the sea-breeze will lead to another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again tapering off in the evening hours. Will need to monitor for the potential of upgrading the Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning for portions of SE Texas on Tuesday. Values are bordering the warning criteria at the moment, so will see how they trend with the overnight forecast. Otherwise, continue to use caution in the heat. Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest time of day, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Remember, pet owners, if the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, it is too hot for their paws. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The main weather story in the long term will be the continued heat and humidity. Model blends showing max heat indices on most days during this period up near excessive heat warning thresholds...113F...for many areas. Heat index very sensitive to dew point which can at times be overdone by models...but certainly possible we could hit those levels. In any case expecting a long duration of hot weather ahead with heat stress a concern for those outdoors away from air conditioning. As far as rain chances...looking like a few isolated thunderstorms possible most days along sea breeze fronts...with typical summertime progression near the coast in morning working up into another row of counties inland during afternoon...at least through the Wed through Fri period...but that is about it with most areas remaining dry. Reilly && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Mostly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period with a small window for MVFR vis/cigs during the overnight to early morning hours. Winds will be light and VRB tonight, becoming SE late morning to early afternoon and increasing to 5-10 KTS. There is a chance for SHRA/TSRA to develop again near and along the sea breeze in the afternoon and early evening, similar to today`s activity (maybe a little more coverage). Some TS can result in brief moments of strong gusty winds and reduced vis/cigs. Storms will dissipate late evening. Winds are expected to become light and VRB again just before midnight. Cotto (24) && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 With high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico through much of the forecast period...expect mainly light S to SE winds less than 10 knots and low seas for most part. During the overnight hours, winds may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances will remain low. Reilly && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 97 77 98 / 0 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 79 97 79 97 / 0 30 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 82 92 83 91 / 0 30 0 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>212. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ213-214-226-227- 235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Reilly AVIATION...Cotto (24) MARINE...Reilly