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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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333 FXUS64 KHGX 152307 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 607 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 TL;DR: Hot and humid weather continues with isolated/scattered storms in the afternoon. Surface high pressure centered to our east will remain in control, resulting in warm and humid south to southwesterly flow. Showers and storms currently developing and slowly moving across the coastal counties should taper off by sunset. A similar weather pattern is expected on Friday, with the only difference that temperatures will be a few degrees hotter than today. Temperatures in the upper 90s and sfc dewpoints generally in the 70s will lead to dangerous heat index with values mainly up to 112F. Therefore, the Heat Advisory has been extended and is now in effect through Friday evening. Diurnal heating and the sea/bay breeze will once again produce showers and storms, generally along and south of I-10. JM && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The long term weather will be driven by an increasingly amplified pattern with a building ridge centered over SW CONUS and a trough digging southward over E CONUS. For the most part, this should equate to a continuation of the hot and dry weather regime over SE Texas since the ridge will be the most dominant of the two features over our region. Inland afternoon high temperatures are expected to average around 100 degrees with overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Coastal areas are expected to be in the low/mid 90s. As we all know, the humidity will make it feel hotter than the actual temperature. Afternoon heat indices are expected to peak in the 107 to 112 range. HOWEVER, there is an atmospheric wild card that could result in higher rain chances and potentially cooler temperatures. So let`s talk about wild cards! When looking at our PoPs during the Saturday to Wednesday time frame, you`ll notice some slight PoPs over our southern/coastal counties on Saturday and more widespread slight PoPs on Tuesday and Wednesday. Saturday`s PoPs are a function of potential isolated showers/thunderstorms along the seabreeze boundary. Tuesday-Wednesday PoPs are related to a potential backdoor cold front. Our friends in E CONUS will have the pleasure of being under the mid/upper trough. At the surface, a strong early season cold front will plunge southward over the eastern third of the country, bringing below average temperatures in its wake. The current forecast calls for the western flank of the front to back westward into eastern Texas, bringing a risk of showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, we continue to predict a weak boundary that only amounts to isolated showers/storms and little to no heat relief. However, recent runs of the ECMWF, and to a lesser extent the GFS, have trended more aggressive with the boundary as it backs into our region. If these trends are a harbinger of what`s to come, then we will likely have to increase rainfall chances and potentially decrease the expected temperatures on Tuesday-Wednesday. We felt these recent runs did not warrant a forecast change since the trend is new. But it`s certainly something to monitor. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 527 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Storms will taper off early this evening. Light southwesterly winds are expected overnight, becoming south to southeast Friday afternoon with the sea breeze. Isolated patchy fog will be possible at KCXO and KLBX during the early morning hours. Isolated showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon hours. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Relatively weak winds and low seas will prevail through the forecast period. Winds may increase somewhat overnight into the pre-dawn hours. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible through Saturday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a frontal boundary may approach from the northeast, bringing a chance of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 99 79 99 / 0 20 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 92 83 92 / 0 10 0 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....Self AVIATION...03 MARINE...Self