503
FXUS61 KGYX 041934
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
334 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy skies are expected through the end of the day
Friday. Mostly dry conditions are expected this evening, then
scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon. Friday
night, a low pressure system moves into the region bringing
widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Skies clear out
on Sunday, with a tranquil Monday expected before unsettled
weather returns to the forecast for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A cold front continues to dissipate across the area this
afternoon, bringing scattered clouds and an isolated shower into
the evening hours. Moisture continues to stream northward into
the area overnight, bringing higher dew points and overnight low
temps in the mid 60s to low 70s. With this moisture, patchy
marine fog is likely to develop along the coastline tonight, and
possibly extend into parts of central Maine as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

What`s left of the original cold front slowly lifts back
northward through the area tomorrow, bringing a few more showers
and an isolated thunderstorm throughout the day. Dew points
will be quite high tomorrow, with most areas seeing afternoon
readings in the low to mid 70s. With this moist airmass, fog
looks likely to hang on along the immediate coastline and into
the MidCoast through at least midday tomorrow. Elsewhere, temps
warm into the low to mid 80s with a mix of sun and clouds,
outside of the scattered showers.

Instability increases through the daytime, with chances for
showers and thunderstorms increasing during the afternoon hours.
The best chances look to be across southern New Hampshire by
the mid afternoon, with these then drifting into coastal areas
by the late afternoon.

We catch a break in the action through the late evening and
into the overnight hours tomorrow night, but then a more
widespread area of showers and storms looks likely to develop
later tomorrow night. This is in association with an upper
level low rotating through the Great Lakes tomorrow through
Saturday. The best chance of rain tomorrow night looks to be
across northern and western areas, but most of the area could
get in on the rainfall by daybreak Saturday. There`s still some
uncertainty with this feature, as it`s not very often we see
convection developing and increasing through the overnight
hours. I held off on going all in with POPs tomorrow night, with
most areas maxing out at low likelies, allowing for a little
more time to get a better handle on the expected evolution of
the convection developing. There is still a chance more of it
could swing west of the area, or that the areal coverage isn`t
all that impressive, similar to what the 3km NAM is suggesting.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
 -----------------------------------------------------------------
Summary:

*Stormy Saturday ahead.

*Temperatures expected to run above average through early next week.

*Pleasant weather likely on Monday, through scattered storms
 return on Tuesday.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
 Discussion: A low arrives on Saturday, bringing scattered
 showers and storms early in the morning. This round of showers
 are anticipated to dissipate during the late morning hours.
 Afterwards, the environment looks to destabilize as clouds
 clear out at daybreak. Storms could generate all over the
 northeast Saturday afternoon and quickly move into New
 Hampshire and Maine by the evening hours. Hi-res forecast
 soundings indicate that a few storms that move across northern
 New England Saturday evening could become severe.

Most of the inclement weather exits the region by Sunday morning,
through a few showers might linger around up along the Canadian
border. Otherwise, Sunday and Monday are forecasted to look and feel
pleasant, with weak ridging nudging temperatures a little above
average and much drier air in place as well. Unsettled weather
returns to the forecast Tuesday and may continue through the rest of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Marine fog and stratus likely arrive along the
coastal terminals and AUG tonight with IFR conditions, lingering
into the mid morning hours. RKD likely holds onto the marine
fog through midday tomorrow, before a break. Interior areas may
see brief restrictions late tonight, but looks less likely. VFR
prevails away from the coast tomorrow, then most areas lower to
IFR with marine fog and showers later tomorrow night.

Long Term...
IFR possible Saturday morning with low visibility as
showers and thunderstorms move through the region. Visibility
improves by the end of the day with thunderstorms possible. The
storms exit the region by Sunday morning with VFR likely. Pleasant
weather continues on Monday as well, but some fog is possible along
the CT River Valley and the Midcoast.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A front dissipates near the waters tonight, and
then lifts northward as a warm front tomorrow. Increasing
moisture leads to patchy dense fog developing tonight, and
likely lingering through at least tomorrow night. Conditions
remains below SCA through tomorrow night.

Long Term...
Southerly winds at 15-20kts are expected Saturday morning
with the onset of a low pressure system. Seas are expected to
gradually increase on Saturday with up to 3 foot seas to start the
day and up to 5-6 foot seas by Saturday night. SCA Issuance is
likely on Saturday. By Sunday morning, the low exits the region,
shifting and simmering winds down to 7-12kts from the southwest.
Seas decrease through the day Sunday too, with 2-4 foot seas by the
end of the day. Seas and wind remain low on Monday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Palmer
NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Palmer
AVIATION...Clair/Palmer
MARINE...Clair/Palmer