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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
490 FXPQ50 PGUM 280805 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 605 PM ChST Fri Jun 28 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery is showing increasing skies and showers approaching the Marianas from the east. Latest altimetry passes and Ritidian buoy data are showing seas of 4 to 6 feet. && .Discussion... A trade disturbance is approaching the Marianas and will bring scattered showers tonight and tomorrow. Have isolated thunderstorms beginning late tonight into Saturday as models are showing deeper moisture and some upper-level support as the TUTT cell north of the Marianas drifts southwest. A disturbance lifting northwest out of Micronesia looks to pass near to south of the Marianas Sunday into Monday, with scattered showers expected again for Guam. Otherwise, generally isolated trade showers expected for the CNMI beginning Saturday night and for Guam beginning Monday night. && .Marine/Surf... Gentle to moderate trade winds will continue through the weekend into next week. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will drop to between 3 and 5 feet late weekend into early next week as the trade swell diminishes, then back up to 4 to 6 feet around the middle of next week. A passing disturbance will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. Another disturbance passing to the south may bring scattered showers for the Guam waters Sunday through Monday. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing reefs, with a low risk along all other reefs. Surf may lower slightly beginning Sunday into early next week as the trade swell diminishes. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... A cascading trade-wind wave is expected to induce strong outflow boundaries that may bring gusty conditions to Pohnpei Sunday and to Kosrae Sunday night, followed by shower and thunder coverage decreasing to the usual seasonal regime. Meanwhile, patchy showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two is in store for Chuuk and Majuro for much of the forecast period. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet as northeasterly and southeasterly swells make their way across Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae. Meanwhile, Majuro will observe seas of 4 to 6 feet drop down a foot or two by the middle of next week. && .Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap... A tropical disturbance near Helen`s Reef in the southwesternmost extent of the Republic of Palau, is inducing a substantial convergence zone that spans well to the east-northeast across the main islands of Palau and Yap. This is expected to produce widespread heavy showers, patchy areas of thunderstorms, and gusty outflow boundaries at and near Palau tonight; some of these gusts may reach near gale-force in the coastal waters. Significant shower coverage is also expected at Yap, but wind potentials are a little more lackluster due to the convergence zone axis. Showers and winds are expected to taper down slowly over the next few days, with periods of patchy showers expected for much of next week. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet may drop a foot or two by early next week, as various swells and wind waves decrease. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Slagle Micronesia: Montvila