741
FXUS62 KGSP 050626
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
226 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will linger atop the region today with an influx
of Atlantic tropical moisture expected on Sunday. Hot and more humid
conditions will return on Monday and linger through midweek
featuring daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2:05 AM EDT Saturday: Other than a few patches of stratocu
over the Escarpment, we remain mostly clear across our area. We`re
also seeing a handful of sites reporting reduced visibility, likely
due to lingering smoke from fireworks. Low temps should bottom-out
near-normal overnight. Some of the high-res models depict some low
stratus making a run at our eastern zones this morning. If it does
actually reach our area, it should dissipate/sct relatively quickly
after daybreak.

Otherwise, upper ridging will shift eastward over the eastern third
of the CONUS on Saturday. Sfc high pressure currently centered over
the mid-Atlantic Coast will gradually drift offshore thru the near-
term period, yet low-level flow should remain generally NELY over our
area. Continued weak subsidence is expected to limit any convective
development again today with PoPs remaining below 15% across our CWA.
Tropical Depression Three is still expected to remain just off the SC
Coast today with no direct impacts on our sensible wx. Subsidence is
likely to be enhanced around the periphery of this system, thus in-
creasing my confidence in lower PoPs today. High temps today should
be a bit cooler than Friday, but still a degree or two above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Saturday: The current forecast for Tropical Depression
3 keeps the circulation east of the forecast area, minimizing any
tropical storm wind threat; however, it will be close enough for an
increase in moisture and forcing, especially over the I-77 corridor.
Have PoP increasing through the day then diminishing overnight as it
moves northeast away from the area. Right now, QPF looks to top out
in the moderate range minimizing any flood threat. Scattered, mainly
diurnal convection returns for Monday. Highs on Sunday will be below
normal for the I-77 corridor where clouds and precip chances are
highest, and slightly above normal elsewhere. Highs rebound Monday,
up to 5 degrees above normal. Heat index values may reach the 100
range along and south of the I-85 corridor unless they mix out more
then currently forecast. Lows will be near to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday: A weak upper anticyclone over the area is
slowly suppressed through Wednesday as weak short waves move east. A
stronger short wave slowly moves north of the area Thursday and
Friday. A nearly stationary front remains to our north with waves of
low pressure move east along it. This keeps a moist and unstable air
mass over the area with increasing but weak forcing. Expect
increasing, mainly diurnal PoP through the period. Highs rise to
around 5 and possibly 10 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.
Heat index values in the 100 degree or higher range develop along
and south of the I-85 corridor. Right now, it appears that Heat
Advisories won`t be needed, but stay tuned. Highs drop back to
slightly above normal Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions thru the 06z taf
period. E to NE flow will continue around the southwestern side of
the sfc high that remains centered over the Mid-Atlantic Coast. KAVL
and KHKY are most likely to see winds to go light and VRB (or calm)
overnight. There is limited potential for mtn valley/river fog over-
night and into the morning, but I wouldn`t totally rule it out. In
addition, HZ/BR is currently being observed at KHKY and KAVL, likely
from lingering smoke from nearby fireworks. This should dissipate
over the next few hrs. Otherwise, we can expect few to sct cumulus
in the 5 to 7k ft range and some high cirrus today. E to NE winds
will likely be as strong, if not a few kts stronger than yesterday,
with low-end gusts of 15 to 20 kts expected this afternoon/evening
outside of the mtns. Gusts should dissipate later this evening.

Outlook: Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase on
Sunday and early next week. Depending on the track of Tropical
Depression Three, the western periphery of the outer rain bands
could approach KCLT and KHKY late Saturday night and Sunday. While
the heavier rain with this system is expected to remain east of
our area, MVFR restrictions will be possible in heavier showers.
Fog and/or low stratus will also be possible each morning, mainly
in the mtn valleys, as well as near lakes and rivers.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT