006
FXUS62 KGSP 030141
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
941 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As dry and cooler high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight and
Wednesday, the heat wave will again become established for the
second half of the week.  Hot and humid conditions are expected over
the weekend with Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms from
Thursday through Sunday, especially over the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 940 PM EDT Tuesday: No major changes were needed as the
forecast remains on track. Dry conditions continue across the
forecast area and some stratocu is noted across portions of the
mountain zones and NC Foothills this evening. Cirrus continues
streaming across the western Carolinas from the north as well.

Otherwise, dry sfc high extends from the Hudson Valley down the East
Coast this evening will move off the coast tonight, allowing low-
level flow to reorient to SE. This may allow some low clouds to
possibly develop mainly west of I-26 toward dawn. No fog is expected
though. Near-normal temperatures and more seasonable humidity look
to return Wednesday; vertical profiles are still subsident but more
cumulus can be expected, and a few showers can`t be ruled out over
the southwest NC ridges. This warrants a small area of 20%-ish PoPs
there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday: The mid to upper level ridging across the
southeastern states will weaken over the short range period. This
will unfortunately re-orient the surface high pressure pattern,
which will shift the pleasant northeasterly flow of today around to
the southwest by Independence Day Thursday. This change in flow will
bring the higher heat and humidity back to the area. Temperatures
will be warming each day with readings in the Piedmont reaching the
mid 90s Thursday and mid to upper 90s Friday. With dewpoints climbing
back into the lower 70s in the Piedmont, heat index readings will
approach 105 on Friday afternoon and thus a Heat Advisory may be
needed particularly for the lower Piedmont and Charlotte areas.

Heat and humidity will return to the mountains also. However, this
should lead to early development of convection each day keeping
temperatures in check.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday: A system in the Ohio Valley will push a
weak cold front toward the area and bring a more active convective
pattern with it on Saturday. Storms should develop in the mountains
and push into the Piedmont in the afternoon. However, conditions
will be hot and humid prior to any storm develop with heat index
values again around 105 degrees in the lower Piedmont and Charlotte
areas.

With more moisture in the area due to the front lingering across the
area, expect temperatures to be slightly less hot and there to be an
active convective pattern Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

1) Dry and VFR through the 00Z TAF Period

2) Winds Will Mostly Favor a Southerly and Easterly Component
through Wednesday

3) A FEW to SCT Low Clouds May Develop Around Daybreak at the SC
Upstate Terminals

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 00Z TAF period again
thanks to dry high pressure remaining over the terminals. Winds at
KAVL and KCLT will remain SE`ly this evening into tonight. Winds at
KHKY will remain VRB this evening into tonight while winds across
the SC Upstate terminals start out E/ESE`ly this evening, turning
NE`ly overnight into daybreak Wednesday. Skies would be mostly clear
this evening into late tonight, but cloud cover looks to increase
slightly (and possible lower) for the SC Upstate terminals from ~10Z-
13Z but should remain FEW to SCT, with bases ranging from 030-035.
Fog development is not expected. Winds at KAVL and KHKY will turn
more S`ly Wednesday morning while winds at KCLT remain SE`ly. Winds
across the SC Upstate terminals will gradually turn S/SE`ly
throughout Wednesday morning. Winds should remain light overnight,
becoming 3-6 kts by mid-morning Wednesday. Diurnal cumulus look to
return again on Wednesday thanks to SE`ly flow.

Outlook: A return of more typical mid-summer humidity and diurnal
convection returns Thursday into the weekend leading to possible
restrictions each afternoon/early evening. Fog and/or low stratus
may develop each morning, especially for areas that received rain
the previous day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...AR