788
FXUS63 KGLD 180351
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
951 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and relatively dry conditions expected on Sunday and
  Monday. Both days have low chances for storms. A severe storm
  is possible (mainly in eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border
  areas), should storms develop.

- Some uncertainty with next week`s pattern, but currently could
  favor above average temperatures to begin the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies are mainly sunny w/ some
cumulus forming in the western portions of the cwa along a surface
trough in eastern Colorado. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are
ranging mainly in the 90s, with some 80s in the far east. With high
pressure east and the trough west, the area is seeing a southerly
gradient, with gusts around 20 mph at times.

Main wx issues for the short term will be chances for strong to
severe storms this evening and going into Monday evening. The latest
RAP40 500mb analysis is showing broad ridging over the Rockies,
putting NW flow aloft. Mid level monsoonal moisture continues to
pinwheel around this ridge towards the cwa.

For this afternoon and tonight, the focus will be any convection
developing near the surface trough and pushing east into the cwa.
Since the cap has receded to areas east of Highway 27, instability
has increased. SPC mesoscale analysis is showing SBCape around 2000-
4000 j/kg, low/mid level lapse rates around 8-9 c/km and DCape
around 2000 j/kg. While CAMs do not have a good handle on this, have
opted to go with a 20% chance for an isolated storm through 03z
sunday from Hwy 27 and points west.

Going into Sunday, clouds from activity to our north will hamper
temps some, but overall a hot day is expected, especially
along/south of the Interstate. SPC has expanded the Marginal risk
for severe to cover much of the cwa for the afternoon/evening. The
next shortwave will round the upper ridge to the west and interact
with the remnants of the current surface trough. CAMs have the
activity working across the cwa from the W/NW. Soundings show wind
and hail threats. NamNest 22z Sunday sounding shows even a potential
TOR threat. High PW values up to 1-2 inches MUCape/SBCape over 3000
j/kg and DCape around 1800-1900 j/kg could bring heavy rainfall,
winds at least 60-70 mph and up to 1-2" hail. This activity
continues into the evening, clearing from west to east by 12z
Monday.

For Monday, cooler as clouds from previous night precip will help to
keep sunshine at bay. The next shortwave is expected to work east
from the central Rockies with storms just east of the I-25 corridor
by 00z Tuesday. While this is an early run, expecting this line to
be closer to the cwa, for an evening round of storms w/ 30-40%
chances. SPC does carry a Marginal risk for severe currently for
Colorado at this time due to the slow movement of the line expected.
This could get pushed eastward depending on how stable KS/NE remain
from previous rainfall and whether cap is in place.

For temps, looking for highs on Sunday to range widely due to cloud
cover over the area. Upper 80s north to around 100F south are
expected. Hottest temps will be along and south of Highway 40. With
RH expected in the 20-30% range, heat indices will remain at or
below forecasted highs. Some locales could be close to record highs.
Please refer to the Climate section below for further information.
Going into Monday, cooler with mid and upper 80s expected. Overnight
lows will range in the 60s each night, with warmest areas along/east
of Highway 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Current long term guidance(GFS/ECMWF) continues to show the main wx
focus in the extended period strong 500mb ridging through the Plains
region. Some amplification does occur during next week, along with
differences in ridge axis placement, especially for the latter
portion of next week. These differences will allow for a W/SW flow
aloft. There will be several shortwaves that move up along the
western side of the ridge each day, bringing in monsoonal moisture.

With a strong surface ridge in place over the eastern portion of the
country, and a persistent low/trough over the western CWA near the
CO/KS border, there will be chances for rw/trw to occur, mainly late
Wednesday onward. Best timing looks to be in the evening timeframe.
With the synoptic setup as mentioned, best chances for precipitation
will occur west of Highway 25, especially along/west of Highway 27.
The area will be looking at a 25-40% chance for convection west of
Highway 25 Thursday night, and a 15-20% chance otherwise.

Southerly flow at the surface, combined with W/SW flow aloft, and
850mb temps approaching +28c to +32c some days, will give the area a
week of above normal temperatures.

For temps, looking for highs to range in the 90s each day. Depending
on the extent of cloud cover from precip each day, forecasted highs
could approach/be around 100F in spots. If so, some locales could
approach near record temps. Overnight lows will range in the 60s
each night, warmest east of Highway 25. Some locales along/east of
Highway 83 Fri-Sat nights may only drop to the 70F mark.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light
(5-10 knot) ESE to SE winds will prevail overnight. Winds will
likely become variable during the late morning and early
afternoon.. as a weak/broad lee cyclone in CO progresses
eastward over portions of western KS. Winds are expected to
shift to the E or NE and increase to 15-25 knots during the late
afternoon.. as the aforementioned lee cyclone shifts southward
to the OK Panhandle. Wind speed and direction may, in part, be a
function of convection anticipated to develop along and north
of the I-80 corridor in Nebraska late tonight/Sun morning. With
this in mind, confidence in wind speed/direction is below
average.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light
(6-12 knot) E winds will prevail through Sunday morning..
increasing to 15-25 knots during the mid-late afternoon. Wind
speed and direction may, in part, be a function of convection
anticipated to develop along and north of the I-80 corridor in
Nebraska late tonight/Sun morning. With this in mind, confidence
in wind speed/direction is below average.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

With temperatures expected to climb around 100F Sunday afternoon for
areas along/south of Highway 40, some locales may be close to record
highs. Here is the site with potential to come close to/tie a record
for Sunday, August 18th:

Tribune, KS 102F in 1962

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Vincent
CLIMATE...JN