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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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979 FXUS63 KGLD 020700 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 100 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe potential this afternoon and evening with all hazards potentially possible. - Storm chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday with severe possible. - Breezy to gusty 4th of July; albeit a bit cooler. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Mid level troughing continues to push towards the northern Plains along with a deepening surface low across eastern Colorado. Stratus continues to be persistent across the northeast portion of the area which does bring some concerns for the Heat Advisory for Norton and Red Willow counties in particular. Will continue to leave in place as RAP does show the stratus breaking up some in the afternoon; along with the moist air mass in place will not take much diurnal heating for low to mid 100 heat indices to occur. Main focus is on thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening. Warm front currently looks to be draped from roughly Chase county Nebraska down through northern Rooks county in Kansas which is the edge of the stratus deck. Continue to think this will continue to slowly lift to the north and north east. CAMS, including WOFS, have slowly been shifting westward towards the Highway 27 corridor for CI to occur this afternoon along the axis of a surface trough. Storms may struggle initially but should slowly intensify as they move into the better moisture, will need to watch for landspout potential along this boundary as well as cells develop. As these storms mature large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat as they move off towards the northeast. If a storm can become a dominant supercell from the initial round of convection and interact with the warm front a supercell tornado potential may develop but is highly conditional on multiple factors coming together. A 2nd round of convection looks to occur along the surface trough moving west to east across the area. Scattered to numerous storms looks to occur with this posing some continued severe potential; CAMS have been continuously picking up on a stronger cell with UH track roughly along the KS/NE border. If this does occur and other cells don`t impact it much then a conditional very large hail threat may occur given the 15Z RAP environment. Rainfall chances look to end around midnight MT across the area. RAP indicates some additional moisture moving through the area tonight which looks to provide another potential for stratus and fog overnight; better surface moisture and more northeasterly winds along the KS/CO border leads to believe that area will have the relative better potential for at least patchy fog development. RAP keeps stratus lingering across eastern portions of the area for the majority of the day tomorrow along with fairly high 700mb moisture which makes me thinks clouds will play more of a role on high temperatures for the day Tuesday so have lowered temperatures down about 5 degrees across the area resulting in highs in the 80s. Another, conditional severe threat looks to be in place across the area tomorrow afternoon. A boundary and some weak omega looks to be in place from roughly Norton county down through Greeley county; however RAP soundings show a mid level CAP in place which would hinder storm development; also do have concerns about how much instability will be in place especially if the cloud cover does continue to hold. If a storm where to break the CAP then an all hazards scenario would be on the table. Tuesday night additional 700-500mb mid level moisture looks to work in from the south bringing additional chances for showers and storms overnight mainly along and south of Interstate 70. With drier air in place initially the low temperature may occur early on in the evening/night before steadily rising as the increase in moisture occurs. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Thursday...an upper level low pressure area is forecast to move east-southeast across the northern plains with the flow aloft from the west-northwest. Guidance continues to advertise a generally dry day with a 20%-30% chance for thunderstorms during the night across the southwest 1/2 of the forecast area as a weather system per 700- 500mb relative humidity moves through from the northwest. Otherwise, we`re looking for breezy north winds during the day as surface high pressure strengthens from the north. High temperatures are forecast to be below normal in the upper 70s to middle 80s, spot on with 850mb temperature bias` over the past week or so. Low temperatures fall into the lower to upper 50s. Friday...the forecast area is forecast to be under northwest flow aloft, in between low pressure to our north and east and a strengthening ridge to our west. Similar to Thursday, it appears per GFS/ECMWF/GEM 700-500mb relative humidity forecasts that another weather system skirts the far southwest 1/3-1/4 of the forecast area during the afternoon and early evening hours, potentially supporting a 20% chance of thunderstorms. Presently, pops are limited to the Flagler area. High temperatures are forecast to remain below normal in the lower to middle 80s, in great agreement with GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperature bias` from the past week or so. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Saturday...not much change in the general 500mb pattern when compared to Friday. There is some agreement from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models that another weather system will move through the area during the afternoon through late evening/overnight hours, supporting 20%- 30% chances for showers and thunderstorms. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures rise a few degrees, supporting high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Sunday...500mb pattern remains similar to Friday and Saturday. GFS/GEM models are in fair agreement bringing another weather system into western parts of far eastern Colorado during the afternoon, supporting a 20% chance for thunderstorms. This system continues moving southeast through the remainder of the forecast area overnight with 20%-30% chances for thunderstorms. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 85-90 degree range. This could be a bit warm given GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures supporting highs about 5F to 7F cooler. Low temperatures fall into the middle 50s to lower 60s. Monday...the 500mb pattern shows no signs of significant change when compared to the prior few days. That is also reflected in the thunderstorm forecast with 20% chances during the typical afternoon and overnight hours. High temperatures look to be near normal in the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 KGLD will be on the southwestern fringe of a low stratus and fog layer. Confidence is about 65% that KGLD will remain VFR, but this could quickly change if the layer spreads to the southwest. KMCK is in the heart of the low-level moist layer and conditions will flip back and forth between LIFR and VFR based on density of the 200 ft ceilings and how if a thicker patch of fog moves over the airfield. We aren`t expecting conditions to improve much until late morning when the sun burns off the clouds and fog. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...CA