410
FXUS63 KGLD 190451
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1051 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms anticipated to develop along the CO Front Range
  and Nebraska Panhandle early Friday afternoon will increase in
  coverage and track southeast across northwest Kansas during
  the late aft-eve. A few severe storms are possible, mainly
  between 5-10 pm MDT. Wind gusts up to 65 mph and isolated
  instances of flash flooding appear to be the primary severe
  weather hazards.

- Temperatures remaining near normal through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Across the region this afternoon, scattered diurnal cumulus
around the area is providing mostly sunny to sunny conditions.
Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are ranging mainly in the 80s,
with a few locales around the 90F mark. Winds are southerly in
the 5-15 mph range.

The main weather concerns for the short term period will
revolve around the chances for strong to severe storm potential
this afternoon/evening and again on Friday.

Looking aloft, the latest 500mb RAP40 analysis is showing a
large dome of high pressure over the western portion of the
country, providing NW flow over the area. There is a weak
shortwave working along the eastern side of this ridge and is
evident with the building cumulus/showers forming along the I-25
corridor. There is a surface trough over eastern Colorado,
which will aid as a focal point for further storms later this
afternoon into the evening.

The latest CAMs (HRRR and NamNest) are showing storms
approaching the western CWA towards the 22z-23z timeframe,
moving south along the trough through the CWA. Based on current
track of this convection, the bulk should stay along and south
of I-70 going into this evening. Have taken a blend of these two
models and carried 15- 20% pops from Highway 25, with highest
chances in the southwest. There is a strong surface ridge to the
east that should keep precip focused along the aforementioned
track. Based on model soundings, inverted-v profiles show best
threat is damaging winds, similar to the past few days. Hail
threat not ruled out but it will not last as the convection
could form a line after 06z Friday, strengthening the wind
threat. Locally heavy downpours still possible as SPC surface
analysis shows PW values 1-1.3" east of the colorado border.

Better chances for precip do occur on Friday and Friday
evening. A strong frontal boundary along with another shortwave
will trigger a bigger chance (40-60%) for rw/trw area-wide. With
temps going near normal for the day, dry low levels will give
wind as main threat, with some hail possible. Rainfall could
produce isolated issues with flooding.

SPC does carry a marginal risk for locales west of Highway 25
today, with one area-wide for Friday. Overall QPF for the next
36 hours has a range from 0.25-1.00", with Friday seeing the
bulk of this moisture. There is another shortwave moving through
on Saturday with a 20-30 % chances for storms again.

For temps, highs across the region on Friday will range in the
lower to mid 90s and for Saturday, mid 80s are expected.
Overnight lows will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Coolest
night will occur on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Current runs of the GFS and ECMWF both show a trend for the
extended period to begin another warmer and drier stretch. The
amplified 500mb ridge over the west is expected eastward more
into the rockies through the upcoming week w/ the ridge axis
extending towards the eastern Rockies, but overall a northerly
flow aloft. East of this, the cutoff 500/700 mb low over Iowa
does eventually phase back into the broad trough over the east-
northeast and shift east slightly.

At the surface, low pressure over the Rockies will have an
extended front east into the CWA for Sunday and Monday. A
westward progression ensues for the ridge to the east. The
movement of the low/front Sun-Mon, combined with the upper
support shifting east a bit by midweek, will have 20-40% chances
for rw/trw slowly degrade westward in tandem with the
low/front. Instability over the area decreases as will w/ the
shift west, but can`t rule out a few strong/isolated severe
storms near the front Sun-Mon.

What will occur for the area is an increasing temperature
trend. 850 mb temps start of in the +20c to +25c range Sun-Mon,
but increase into the +29c to +32c range by Thursday afternoon.

For temps, looking for highs on Sunday and Monday to range in
the upper 70s into the mid 80s. Warmest temperatures east of the
Colorado border. Going into Tuesday, warmer with mid to upper
80s expected. Midweek, upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with
lower to mid 90s on Thursday. Lows for Sunday and Monday nights
will range in the mid to upper 50s, warmest east of Highway 25.
Thereafter, upper 50s west through the mid 60s east are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF
period, with winds from the S at 7-14 knots. Thunderstorms
anticipated to develop along the Colorado Front Range and
Nebraska Panhandle early Friday afternoon (18-21Z) will
increase in coverage and track southeastward across northwest
Kansas during the late afternoon and evening. Both terminals may
be affected near the end of the TAF period (~00-06Z Sat). Gusty/
erratic winds can be expected invof any storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Vincent