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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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536 FXUS63 KGLD 190745 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 145 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the entire area. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop after 5 PM MDT and quickly move southeast. The primary hazard will be wind gusts of 60-70 mph, but there may also be a few instances of large hail as well as locally heavy rainfall. - Near to slightly above average temperatures are forecast next week along with low chances of daily thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Shortwave trough topping the ridge axis in the northern Rockies tonight will move southeast today, reaching the area by late this afternoon and evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop, some severe, by around 23-00z, quickly moving southeast this evening. Environment will be characterized by 30-40 kts of deep layer shear under the northwest flow and MUCAPE peaking at around 1500 j/kg around 00z. Wind is expected to be the main hazard as storms quickly cluster, though a few instances of large hail will also be possible. 6-hour mean QPF is around 1 to 1.5 inches centered in northwest Kansas, with higher percentiles of up to 2 inches. So, some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Storms will quickly move south and out of the area no later than 06z tonight, with little to no precipitation overnight. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low 90s and lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s. An upper low will cut off over Iowa on Saturday, which is where most of the precipitation will be. Further west, scattered storms will develop near the Front Range where northwest flow continues and there is a weak embedded disturbance. Some of that activity may manage to makes its way into far northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas by the late afternoon and evening. However, instability is forecast to be quite limited, less than 500 j/kg, and deep layer shear around 25 kts. Given those parameters, severe storms are not expected. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s and lows Saturday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The upper low in Iowa will drift into eastern Nebraska on Sunday, close enough to increase shower and thunderstorm chances as early as Sunday morning and continuing through the rest of the day. Instability and shear parameters remain weak and severe storms are not anticipated. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows Sunday night in the 50s with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 101 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 For next week, the pattern will largely be characterized by upper ridging over the Western CONUS and troughing over the Great Lakes region. The main variance in the pattern looks to come from a cut- off low over the mid-west early in the week and then another potential trough axis late in the week. For Mon-Tue, highs are forecast to be in the 80`s as the cut-off low is forecast to be over MO/IA. With this, the upper ridging is forecast to keep more to the west, limiting how much warm air moves into the area. Some cloud cover will also be likely with moisture over the area and the presence of the upper feature. Ensemble guidance shows little variation with the placement and timing, so confidence is fairly high in this part of the forecast. For Wed-Fri, the cut-off low is forecast to rejoin the flow. From here, the questions become does another trough axis swing through the Great Lakes region and bring a disturbance through and when does the next trough from the northwest swing through. In the absence of troughing, the ridging in the west should begin to influence more of the area and bring warmer temperatures in the 90`s or low 100`s by the end of the week. Otherwise, temperatures may remain more mild than forecast in the 80`s or around 90. Precipitation chances would also increase with the advancement of one of the troughs through the area. With conditions forecast to be fairly similar to this week and prior weeks, precipitation chances through the period are forecast to be around 10-30%. Storms would likely be isolated to scattered and develop during the afternoon and evening hours with the continued northwest flow. Again, the exception to this is towards the end of the week if a trough axis can swing through from either the Great Lakes region or the northwest. Severe weather will likely remain isolated and marginal through much of the week unless a more organized system can development (mainly end of the week). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF period, with winds from the S at 7-14 knots. Thunderstorms anticipated to develop along the Colorado Front Range and Nebraska Panhandle early Friday afternoon (18-21Z) will increase in coverage and track southeastward across northwest Kansas during the late afternoon and evening. Both terminals may be affected near the end of the TAF period (~00-06Z Sat). Gusty/ erratic winds can be expected invof any storms. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...BV