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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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741 FXUS63 KGLD 040651 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1251 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog may develop through the mid morning hours today. - Breezy during the day today, but winds should subside this evening and allow for a mild evening with temperatures in the 60`s and generally clear skies. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1249 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For the 4th of July, its looking like a fairly nice day across the area. The forecast calls for the area to shift to the back side of the upper troughing with high surface pressure moving in behind the front. With drier air moving in with the front, mostly sunny skies are expected today along with mild temperatures around the low 80`s. The main inconvenience is the front`s passage is forecast to increase winds out of the north during the day to around 20 mph with gusts around 25 to 40 mph. By this evening, the pressure gradient should weaken over the area and help winds become mainly calm around or shortly after sunset. Temperatures should quickly lower into the 60`s with mostly clear skies. Will need to keep an eye out for a pop up storm off the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado with the northwesterly flow, but the overall drier air is keeping chances around 15% or less. Even if a storm did form, it would likely be isolated and short lived. Overall, pretty good conditions for any fireworks. Tomorrow, the relatively mild conditions are forecast to continue with the upper trough still impacting the area and keeping us in northwest flow. With drier air forecast to remain over the area, skies should be mostly sunny with temperatures warming into the 80`s. Winds should be lighter as the higher pressure diffuses to the northeast with speeds around 10 mph from the northwest. With the northwest flow, will have to watch for storms again later tomorrow, but chances remain low with the drier air in place. Even if storms did form, they should be sub-severe and isolated to maybe scattered. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 NW flow looks to be present across the Plains as a highly amplified ridge develops across the western CONUS. Will be continuing to watch for daily chances for showers and storms as this is a pattern that is favorable for subtle waves moving along the eastern periphery of the amplified ridge. Slight chance to chance pops (20-40%) look to remain across the CWA for most days with perhaps the relatively more favorable days looking to be Saturday and Sunday as guidance is hinting at a stronger wave within the northwest flow to impact the area. It does appear that there may be some severe weather potential with it with shear around 30-40 knots across the area and CAPE between 1000-1500 j/kg but is a bit to earlier to nail down exact specifics at this time. As for temperatures they are looking to continue to remain near normal to below normal with highs generally in the 80s across the area. The exception does look to be Saturday where some low 90s could sneak into the area. Temperatures do look to increase as towards the start of the new work week as the ridge and associated surface high start move more easterly. As this occurs then the chances for rain will begin to diminish with it as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 For KGLD, mainly VFR expected w/ the chance for MVFR ceilings from 09Z-16Z. Southerly winds at 5-10 kts will shift to be out of the northwest by ~09Z when ceilings should begin decreasing due to stratus and potentially patchy fog. Northwest to northerly winds will increase during the morning to early afternoon with gusts of 25-30 kts possible over the terminal. Around 00Z, winds will become more northeasterly and decrease to 5-10 kts for the remainder of the period. For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions expected. There could be VCTS impacting the terminal again from 09Z-14Z Thursday along with light rain. Severe weather is not anticipated to impact the terminal. MVFR ceilings possible due to stratus and possibly patchy fog followed by VFR from ~14z onward. Winds, south- southeast around 10 kts will become north-northwest by 12z, increasing to 10-20kts with gusts around 25 kts possibly during the afternoon hours. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...KMK