019
FXUS65 KGJT 070513
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1113 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above normal by Wednesday,
  and remain there through the rest of the week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the terrain are
  possible tomorrow, but high pressure will keep most of the
  region dry throughout the week.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday
  through Friday as stronger winds move through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Sounding PWAT`s are trending downwards with today`s 18Z sounding
dropping below 0.4 inches for the first time since last Tuesday.
There does appear to be enough residual moisture overhead to develop
scattered cloud cover along the high terrain though. Isolated
showers and a few sparse thunderstorms are possible mostly near the
Park Range today as well, though the relatively stable environment
should keep any storms on the milder side.

Tomorrow, we catch a combination of slightly increased (yet still
below normal) moisture and a boost in lift from a transient
shortwave embedded within the upper-level ridge. CAM`s reflect this
with more scattered afternoon convection across the southeastern
CWA. Precipitation potential reaches 50% over the San Juans, but
much of the rest of the region looks to be on track for more
sporadic and isolated storms focused along the terrain. Where storms
do develop, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and lightning will all
be possible. Otherwise, look for temperatures to continue rising
throughout the next few days with some lower valley locations
beginning to hit triple digits highs tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

High pressure continues to be centered just south of the Four
Corners through Wednesday allowing southwest flow aloft to continue
advecting warm and dry air into the region. Triple-didgit high
temperatures are likely for most of the lower-desert valleys on
Tuesday and Wednesday as a result. While temperatures will top out
around 5-10 degrees above normal for early/mid July, record highs
are not anticipated.

A weakening shortwave trough is progged to pass through the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. While ensemble data is hinting at a
slight uptick in mositure with its passage as PWATs rise to 115-130%
of normal, this spike happens overnight for most locations in our
forecast area. Southwest Utah has the best chance to see a few
showers and storms as the moisture moves in Wednesday evening, but
the timing of this wave does not look to be in our favor to provide
wetting rains or precipitation chances in general. The biggest
concern with this wave`s passage is the potential for critical fire
weather conditions with a stronger pressure gradient leading to
stronger surface winds. These impacts may extend into Friday for
parts of southwest Colorado, but models are not in very good
agreement in the wake of the aformentioned shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible at most TAF sites
tomorrow afternoon. SKC is in the forecast tonight, but FEW to
SCT mid and high level cloud coverage will move in tomorrow. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT