572
FXUS65 KGJT 080512
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1112 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures overtake the region tomorrow,
  remaining in place through the seven-day forecast.

- Isolated storms are possible along the Divide tomorrow
  afternoon (less than 20% chance) with better precipitation
  chances arriving Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The pocket of moisture responsible for today`s showers and
storms moves out to the east this evening, giving way to a
drier day tomorrow. Remnant moisture along the Divide may be
enough to support isolated showers and storms tomorrow
afternoon, but even the moisture-rich CAMs are struggling to
produce more than a handful of terrain-based storms.

Triple-digit high temperatures are very likely tomorrow in the
desert valleys of eastern Utah and western Colorado. While the
dry air will keep heat index values below heat advisory
criteria, adequate hydration and shade breaks will be very
important tomorrow and for the rest of the week as we experience
some of the warmest temperatures of the year. Avoid strenuous
outdoor activities during peak heating if possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

By Wednesday with the high pressure entrenched over the Desert
Southwest, the low off the West Coast will have lifted north and
moved inland as it becomes an open wave tracking east on the
zonal flow aloft. Models are in good agreement with this open
wave system moving across the northern half of eastern Utah and
Western Colorado overnight Wednesday into Thursday bringing
enough instability and upper-level convective support from a
weak jet to kick off isolated to scattered showers and nocturnal
thunderstorms over the higher terrain Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning mostly in the central and northern Colorado
mountains. The integrated water vapor transport models are
sneaking moisture north into the Great Basin out of southern
Arizona under the high that gets picked up by this system and
advected east into the region. Guidance is still pessimistic on
precip from this system, but with pwats over 0.70 inches,
wouldn`t be surprised to see wetting rain possible mostly across
the Flat Tops and mountains north of the I-70 corridor. Stay
tuned on this forecast convection as the models catch up on the
moisture squeezing in under the high. Would expect to see PoP`s
increase significantly from the current values.

Otherwise, look for hot, dry conditions across the region with
moderate afternoon winds approaching critical fire weather
thresholds. Wednesday will see a few localized areas of near
critical fire weather conditions with these conditions becoming
more widespread Thursday due to increased winds, but it`s too
soon to tell if a Red Flag Warning will be needed; again, stay
tuned for the next few model runs for updates. Going into the
weekend, wind diminish as the high pressure expands north over
the region reducing the upper level flow. Temperatures will
remain five to ten degrees above normal for July and very dry
weather across the region resulting in dangerous fire conditions
even though winds may be light. As always, exercise extreme
care recreating in the hills to prevent wild fires. With the hot
and very dry conditions, a fire can easily start and quickly
spread.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A few clouds will persist overnight but won`t pose any aviation
threats whatsoever. Some midlevel cumulus clouds will develop
over the higher terrain this afternoon as VFR conditions remain
in place. Some gusts of 18-24kts are expected again this
afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT