Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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780 FXUS65 KGJT 042317 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 517 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue through the weekend with temperatures increasing. - Systems rippling over the top of the high pressure ridge could bring passing clouds and occasionally breezy conditions over the coming days. - Monsoon moisture doesn`t look to return to the region until early to mid next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure centered over the West Coast is keeping us under dry northwest flow making for a quiet day overall. Highs will end up near normal to slightly below. The jet associated with a system tracking over the Northern Plains will result in wind gusts of 20-30 mph this afternoon and evening. Therefore fire concerns are elevated today, but those conditions are localized and mainly confined to the northern half of the area. Those gusty winds decrease overnight and any cloud cover should dissipate as well. Not much changes in the pattern tomorrow so expect a carbon copy of today with slightly lower wind speeds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Persistent northwesterly flow aloft continues to produce a warm, dry weather pattern through the first half of next week with near-normal afternoon temperatures. Come Wednesday, the surface high currently located off the California coast brings above normal temperatures to the region as it slowly begins to move east. Rain chances along the Divide and San Juans return by midweek (15-30% chance) as well. However, when looking at ensemble forecasts, GEFS and EPS members show a wide variety of potential PWATS for Wednesday and Thursday ranging from 0.2 to 0.9" in the San Juans with the EPS members notably drier than the GEFS. All in all, preciptation could return to the forecast area by the middle of next week but moisture differences between models make it hard to get a good feel for the coverage this far out. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 513 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Expect VFR conditions with clear skies and light terrain driven winds overnight becoming westerly after 18Z with gusts to 20 kts. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...KAA AVIATION...DB