780
FXUS65 KGJT 042317
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
517 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue through the weekend with temperatures
  increasing.

- Systems rippling over the top of the high pressure ridge
  could bring passing clouds and occasionally breezy conditions
  over the coming days.

- Monsoon moisture doesn`t look to return to the region until
  early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure centered over the West Coast is keeping us under dry
northwest flow making for a quiet day overall. Highs will end up
near normal to slightly below. The jet associated with a system
tracking over the Northern Plains will result in wind gusts of 20-30
mph this afternoon and evening. Therefore fire concerns are elevated
today, but those conditions are localized and mainly confined to the
northern half of the area. Those gusty winds decrease overnight and
any cloud cover should dissipate as well. Not much changes in the
pattern tomorrow so expect a carbon copy of today with slightly
lower wind speeds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Persistent northwesterly flow aloft continues to produce a warm, dry
weather pattern through the first half of next week with near-normal
afternoon temperatures. Come Wednesday, the surface high currently
located off the California coast brings above normal temperatures to
the region as it slowly begins to move east. Rain chances along the
Divide and San Juans return by midweek (15-30% chance) as well.
However, when looking at ensemble forecasts, GEFS and EPS members
show a wide variety of potential PWATS for Wednesday and Thursday
ranging from 0.2 to 0.9" in the San Juans with the EPS members
notably drier than the GEFS. All in all, preciptation could return
to the forecast area by the middle of next week but moisture
differences between models make it hard to get a good feel for the
coverage this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Expect VFR conditions with clear skies and light terrain driven
winds overnight becoming westerly after 18Z with gusts to 20
kts.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...DB