703
FXUS65 KGGW 291938
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
138 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) On Sunday evening, there are severe thunderstorms possible
north of HWY 2, and severe thunderstorms likely south of HWY 2.

2) Unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for
thunderstorms will continue the rest of the week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Low cloud cover is slowly dissipating this afternoon in wake of
the low pressure system that is pushing through the northern and
central plains today. A strong shortwave trough will replace the
benign weather by tomorrow afternoon. A strong cap is expected to
erode along the high terrain of central Montana, moisture
advection will push dewpoints into the upper 50s to low 60s, bulk
shear will mainly be above 40 knots, the low level jet will
eventually exceed 30 knots, and MU CAPE values are expected to
exceed 800 J/kg. These ingredients will aid in thunderstorm
development beginning around 5 PM Sunday, and there is moderate
(50 percent) confidence of these storms becoming severe as they
reach Petroleum and Phillips county as they trek eastward. This
activity is expected to continue through midnight before the
storms move into North Dakota.

Beyond this time period, shower and thunderstorm chances continue
throughout the week, which will help limit high temps from
reaching 90 degrees for most of the area. The strength of
thunderstorms in this period are in question based on
northwesterly flow continuing through the end of the week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
There remains high (80 percent) confidence of thunderstorms
occurring Sunday evening, with low to medium (30 to 50 percent)
confidence on severe weather occurring at any one location.

-Zanker/Stoinskers


&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR through 00Z Monday, then scattered IFR.

DISCUSSION: Low to mid level clouds continue to linger in response
to low level moisture and the low pressure system that moved
through yesterday. There is high (80%) confidence of the MVFR
ceilings lifting by 00Z today. After 00Z Monday, thunderstorms
are expected to impact TAF sites. Some of these may produce severe
winds and severe hail, as well as reduce visibility and ceilings
down to brief IFR conditions.

WINDS: Light and variable, becoming southeast at 10 to 15 knots
after 00Z, increasing to 15 to 23 knots with gusts to 34 knots
after 18Z Sunday. Intense gusty winds with thunderstorms after 00Z
Monday.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow