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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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138 FXUS64 KFWD 122342 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 642 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: A seasonably hot and dry afternoon will give way to a warm overnight period with lows ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. No changes were made to the Heat Advisory set to go into effect tomorrow, and this product will likely be extended in both space and time as the week proceeds. Rain-free weather will prevail through the short term period, with no other significant forecast concerns. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday/ Remnant showers and thunderstorms from this morning`s Oklahoma complex remain north of the Red River this afternoon. Associated cloud cover will keep our northeast counties a few degrees cooler than the rest of the forecast area. Hot, dry, and mostly sunny conditions will prevail through the week with widespread afternoon highs in the 97-103 degree range expected today and Tuesday. Heat indices will approach Heat Advisory criteria in a few locations across North and Central Texas today, but more widespread criteria conditions (air temperature 103 or greater and/or heat index 105 or greater) are expected Tuesday and through the rest of the week. Little relief from the heat is expected during the overnight period with warm lows in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Stay cool out there! Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 406 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ /Wednesday Through Early Next Week/ Ridging will dominate the extended portion of the forecast period with the hottest temperatures of the season expected during the upcoming weekend. The Heat Advisory that begins on Tuesday will likely be extended repeatedly, with the potential for warning criteria to be met. A shortwave will swing through the Central Plains on Thursday, allowing a cold front to invade the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The GFS remains the most bullish on its forward progress and precipitation potential, but the consensus favors climatology, which knows these boundaries struggle to penetrate underneath a ridge of this strength. As there is little else of interest in the extended, aside from the excessive heat, we will certainly keep an eye on this lone potential for rainfall. 25 .CLIMATE... Our triple-digit tallies are running behind schedule. 100-degree days normals (1991-2020) through August 11 through August 12 DFW 13 days 14 days Waco 7 days 17 days Killeen 12 days 15 days && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ VFR will prevail with southeast surface winds near 10 kts and occasional gusts near 20 kts. Diurnally driven cumulus at 5-6 kft and scant cirrus will be the extent of cloud cover through the period. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 100 82 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 78 99 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 74 98 77 98 77 / 5 5 0 0 0 Denton 78 101 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 101 79 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 101 82 102 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 99 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 78 100 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 77 99 76 99 77 / 0 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 102 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$