138
FXUS64 KFWD 122342
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A seasonably hot and dry afternoon will give way to a warm
overnight period with lows ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
No changes were made to the Heat Advisory set to go into effect
tomorrow, and this product will likely be extended in both space
and time as the week proceeds. Rain-free weather will prevail
through the short term period, with no other significant forecast
concerns.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday/

Remnant showers and thunderstorms from this morning`s Oklahoma
complex remain north of the Red River this afternoon. Associated
cloud cover will keep our northeast counties a few degrees cooler
than the rest of the forecast area. Hot, dry, and mostly sunny
conditions will prevail through the week with widespread afternoon
highs in the 97-103 degree range expected today and Tuesday. Heat
indices will approach Heat Advisory criteria in a few locations
across North and Central Texas today, but more widespread criteria
conditions (air temperature 103 or greater and/or heat index 105
or greater) are expected Tuesday and through the rest of the week.
Little relief from the heat is expected during the overnight
period with warm lows in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Stay cool
out there!

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 406 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/
/Wednesday Through Early Next Week/

Ridging will dominate the extended portion of the forecast period
with the hottest temperatures of the season expected during the
upcoming weekend. The Heat Advisory that begins on Tuesday will
likely be extended repeatedly, with the potential for warning
criteria to be met.

A shortwave will swing through the Central Plains on Thursday,
allowing a cold front to invade the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma. The GFS remains the most bullish on its forward progress
and precipitation potential, but the consensus favors climatology,
which knows these boundaries struggle to penetrate underneath a
ridge of this strength. As there is little else of interest in the
extended, aside from the excessive heat, we will certainly keep an
eye on this lone potential for rainfall.

25

.CLIMATE...

Our triple-digit tallies are running behind schedule.

       100-degree days     normals (1991-2020)
      through August 11     through August 12

DFW        13 days               14 days
Waco        7 days               17 days
Killeen    12 days               15 days

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR will prevail with southeast surface winds near 10 kts and
occasional gusts near 20 kts. Diurnally driven cumulus at 5-6 kft
and scant cirrus will be the extent of cloud cover through the
period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 100  82 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                78  99  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               74  98  77  98  77 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              78 101  79 101  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            78 101  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              81 101  82 102  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77  99  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           78 100  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              77  99  76  99  77 /   0   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77 102  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$