695
FXUS64 KFWD 132111
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
411 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

Hot, rain-free conditions will continue across the region. Similar
weather is expected both today and Wednesday, with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to around 104 degrees. While
dew points will somewhat mix out during the afternoon hours, they
will still remain high enough to drive heat index values to
100-109 degrees. With many locations expected to see heat index
values of 105 or greater Thursday afternoon, the current Heat
Advisory will likely be extended through Wednesday evening at some
point this afternoon.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

It`s August in Texas. This often means upper ridging that
suppresses cloud cover and precludes rain chances while pushing
afternoon temperatures into the triple digits. The next several
days will fit this heatwave archetype to a T. Although many
locations have not yet reached the century mark this week, high
temperatures will steadily climb the remainder of the week, with
the hottest weather of the year on tap for the upcoming weekend.
The boundary layer depth will also be on the increase, allowing
for deeper mixing. This won`t make the afternoons feel dry, but as
the week progresses, more and more locations will see dew points
fall below 70F during peak heating. The 60F isodrosotherm may even
encroach on our western zones this weekend, the mark of a thorough
summer heatwave. Despite the decrease in absolute humidity at the
surface, the increase in temperatures should assure that Heat
Advisory criteria are easily met, with some locations reaching
Excessive Heat Warning levels later in the week.

A Central Plains shortwave on Thursday may encourage a front to
slip underneath the ridge, but its forward progress and associated
rainfall potential are not promising this far south. Thereafter,
extended guidance is in remarkably good agreement with the
evolution of the ridge, amplifying it into the upcoming weekend
before a seasonal retrograde to our west early next week. By
Tuesday next week, a near 600-dm high will be centered over New
Mexico at 500mb. Although extended solutions agree on this, the
downstream pattern over us is quite different. The ECMWF has
northerly flow aloft while the GFS has the mid-level ridge axis
atop North Texas. The contrast in the MOS output is stark with the
ECMWF giving DFW a near-normal high of 98F on Tuesday while the
GFS torments us with 107F. For August 20, 107F is nearly 2
standard deviations above the mean, which is extraordinary for a
summer distribution. It`s also just shy of the record high of
109F, which was set last summer.

.FIRE WEATHER...

After one of the wettest springs on record, this summer has been a
reversal of fortune. Many locations, particularly across western
North Texas, have seen little rainfall since May. The resulting
flash drought has reignited wildfire concerns as the abundant
spring growth is now dormant or otherwise drought-stressed. While
summer dormancy is normal, the extent of the rainfall deficits
this season have allowed this vegetation to effective cure in many
areas, providing ample fuel for potential wildfires.

Although grassfires will be possible elsewhere, the greatest
concern for fire starts will be across western portions of North
Texas where the most extreme precipitation deficits will coincide
with afternoon relative humidity values consistently falling below
30 percent. More widespread fire weather concerns will accompany
the excessive heat this weekend. Although full sunshine and above
normal temperatures may encourage fire initiation, relatively
light winds should limit spread and aid in containment.

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and south winds near 8-12 knots are expected through the
period. A few higher gusts near 15-20 knots will be possible
during the afternoon hours.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 100  82 101  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                78  99  77 100  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  98  77  98  78 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              79 100  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   5   5
McKinney            80 100  80 101  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              81 101  82 102  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             78  99  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           78 100  78 100  79 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              76  99  77 100  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       78 102  77 103  77 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$