758
FXUS64 KFWD 250811
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
311 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across much of
  North and Central Texas today. Severe weather is not expected.

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend.

- Additional rain chances arrive early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1236 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025/
/Through Thursday/

Today looks to feature the highest and most widespread rain
chances of the workweek, with isolated/scattered convective
coverage of 20-40% forecast. The low-level moisture axis which
has been displaced south and east of the CWA the past few days
will pivot northwestward today, causing local PW values to reach
or exceed 2 inches. In addition, a subtle disturbance drifting
northward along the western periphery of the east CONUS upper
ridge will support broad and disorganized ascent. As a moist
boundary layer becomes uncapped by mid/late morning, scattered
shower and storm development should get underway initially across
Central and East Texas, but eventually across parts of North
Texas as well. If outflows are able to consolidate and push
northwestward, convective activity could even reach our far
western/northwestern zones by late afternoon. No severe weather is
forecast, and these cells will mostly consist of tropical heavy
downpours, occasional lightning, and gusty winds to around 40 mph.
All convective activity should begin winding down early in the
evening. Increased cloud cover and the presence of some rain-
cooled air will limit high temperatures, with some areas
struggling to even reach 90F.

Mid-level heights should build overhead following the departure
of today`s disturbance, and this will mean a warmer and drier
forecast for Thursday. Highs should return to the low/mid 90s,
and the extent of rain chances will be confined mainly to our
southeast with the late afternoon arrival of the seabreeze.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Lingering seabreeze showers Thursday evening will dissipate
quickly after sunset, giving way to another warm and humid night
with Friday morning lows in the 70s. Additional convection Friday
through the weekend is unlikely, due to strengthening subsidence
associated with the repositioning of a ridge axis directly
overhead. That said, will continue to keep 10 POPs across the
southeast counties where the seabreeze front may kick off a brief
shower or two. The rest of the region will remain rain-free with
temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon
through Monday. Dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s will generate
heat index values of 98 to 103, which is uncomfortable but below
Heat Advisory criteria.

A slight pattern shift will occur early next week as a shortwave
trough drops southeast through the Plains and a weak front sags
south into North Texas. The front will stall, providing a focus
for thunderstorm development each afternoon during the midweek
part of next week. Coverage may not be widespread as 590+
decameter 500mb heights persist overhead, and weak flow aloft
would keep any convection which develops disorganized and sub-
severe. Gusty winds may still occur due to the mid-90s afternoon
temperatures and "inverted V" soundings, along with frequent
lightning and brief heavy rain.

Whatever the case, it is still a bit soon to nail down specifics
regarding timing and location of the front and associated storm
chances, so will stick with slight chance POPs for now and gather
more information in the coming days. Mid range guidance then
indicates the ridge restrengthening overhead and largely shutting
down rain chances just in time for July 4th, though forecast
confidence 8 to 10 days out is still pretty low.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1236 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025/
/06z TAFs/

With this TAF issuance, have introduced VCSH/VCTS for all airports
later today based on more bullish overnight guidance in terms of
convective coverage. As rich low-level moisture and a mid-level
disturbance arrive later this morning, scattered showers and
thunderstorms should begin developing across much of North and
Central Texas. This will also be accompanied by an increase in low
cloud cover between 3-4 kft. Convective impacts could begin as
early as ~16z at any of the airports, but will become more likely
by mid afternoon when aided by daytime heating. Outflows from
nearby convection could result in gusty and erratic winds, but
outside of these effects a southeasterly wind around 10 kts will
prevail.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  75  94  76  95 /  30  10   5   0   0
Waco                89  74  92  73  93 /  30  10  10   0   0
Paris               91  73  90  73  92 /  20  10   5   0   5
Denton              91  74  93  75  95 /  20  10   5   0   0
McKinney            91  74  93  75  94 /  30  10   5   0   0
Dallas              92  76  94  76  96 /  30  10   5   0   0
Terrell             91  73  91  73  93 /  30  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           91  73  90  74  93 /  40  10  20   0   0
Temple              91  73  92  71  94 /  30  10  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       92  72  93  73  96 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$