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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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695 FXUS64 KFWD 132111 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 411 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ /Through Wednesday/ Hot, rain-free conditions will continue across the region. Similar weather is expected both today and Wednesday, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to around 104 degrees. While dew points will somewhat mix out during the afternoon hours, they will still remain high enough to drive heat index values to 100-109 degrees. With many locations expected to see heat index values of 105 or greater Thursday afternoon, the current Heat Advisory will likely be extended through Wednesday evening at some point this afternoon. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Through Early Next Week/ It`s August in Texas. This often means upper ridging that suppresses cloud cover and precludes rain chances while pushing afternoon temperatures into the triple digits. The next several days will fit this heatwave archetype to a T. Although many locations have not yet reached the century mark this week, high temperatures will steadily climb the remainder of the week, with the hottest weather of the year on tap for the upcoming weekend. The boundary layer depth will also be on the increase, allowing for deeper mixing. This won`t make the afternoons feel dry, but as the week progresses, more and more locations will see dew points fall below 70F during peak heating. The 60F isodrosotherm may even encroach on our western zones this weekend, the mark of a thorough summer heatwave. Despite the decrease in absolute humidity at the surface, the increase in temperatures should assure that Heat Advisory criteria are easily met, with some locations reaching Excessive Heat Warning levels later in the week. A Central Plains shortwave on Thursday may encourage a front to slip underneath the ridge, but its forward progress and associated rainfall potential are not promising this far south. Thereafter, extended guidance is in remarkably good agreement with the evolution of the ridge, amplifying it into the upcoming weekend before a seasonal retrograde to our west early next week. By Tuesday next week, a near 600-dm high will be centered over New Mexico at 500mb. Although extended solutions agree on this, the downstream pattern over us is quite different. The ECMWF has northerly flow aloft while the GFS has the mid-level ridge axis atop North Texas. The contrast in the MOS output is stark with the ECMWF giving DFW a near-normal high of 98F on Tuesday while the GFS torments us with 107F. For August 20, 107F is nearly 2 standard deviations above the mean, which is extraordinary for a summer distribution. It`s also just shy of the record high of 109F, which was set last summer. .FIRE WEATHER... After one of the wettest springs on record, this summer has been a reversal of fortune. Many locations, particularly across western North Texas, have seen little rainfall since May. The resulting flash drought has reignited wildfire concerns as the abundant spring growth is now dormant or otherwise drought-stressed. While summer dormancy is normal, the extent of the rainfall deficits this season have allowed this vegetation to effective cure in many areas, providing ample fuel for potential wildfires. Although grassfires will be possible elsewhere, the greatest concern for fire starts will be across western portions of North Texas where the most extreme precipitation deficits will coincide with afternoon relative humidity values consistently falling below 30 percent. More widespread fire weather concerns will accompany the excessive heat this weekend. Although full sunshine and above normal temperatures may encourage fire initiation, relatively light winds should limit spread and aid in containment. && .AVIATION... /Issued 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and south winds near 8-12 knots are expected through the period. A few higher gusts near 15-20 knots will be possible during the afternoon hours. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 100 82 101 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 78 99 77 100 78 / 5 0 0 0 0 Paris 77 98 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 5 Denton 79 100 79 102 79 / 0 0 0 5 5 McKinney 80 100 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 101 82 102 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 78 99 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 78 100 78 100 79 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 76 99 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 102 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$