570
FXUS64 KFWD 142050
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
350 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/
/Through Thursday/

Triple digit heat will continue to plague the region, with
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 90s to near 105 degrees both
today and Thursday. While a slight weakening in the ridge will
allow a weak cold front to slide into the Texas Panhandle tomorrow,
this front unfortunately won`t provide us any relief here in
North and Central Texas. In fact, a slight veering of low-level
winds may actually result in a subtle increase in temperatures
tomorrow. A few showers and storms may develop near the front, but
this activity is expected to remain well to our northwest.

Heat index values will climb to 105-109 degrees for many
locations today and tomorrow, so the current Heat Advisory will
need to be extended through Thursday. Fortunately, we will remain
below Excessive Heat Warning criteria through Thursday, though
that may not be the case for some locations beyond the current
short-term period. The fire weather threat will remain elevated
for areas near and west of Highway 281 due to low afternoon
humidity (25-30%), scorching temperatures, and winds near 10-15
mph.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Through the Middle of Next Week/

Our protracted August heatwave will persist into the upcoming
week with widespread triple-digit temperatures. A latitudinally
oriented ridge axis will strengthen and amplify into the weekend.
Although the core of the mid-level high will be to our northwest,
its intensification and orientation will increase our heights
this weekend, resulting in the hottest temperatures of the year.
Initially displaced equatorward, the top of the dome in the upper
levels will eventually pair with the anticyclone cores beneath
it, enhancing the subsidence early next week.

Sea breeze activity may initiate this weekend as tropical
easterlies impinge on the Texas coast, which will remain beneath a
persistent TUTT. However, any daytime convection will struggle to
penetrate the ridge, and even our southeast counties will
maintain a dry forecast. Climbing rainfall deficits continue to
stress vegetation, and wildfire concerns will worsen the next
several days. Abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures will
enhance the potential for fire starts, but diminished wind speeds
will limit spread and aid in containment.

Extended guidance has come into better agreement with the
evolution of the ridge early next week, with a plurality of
solutions favoring northerly flow above North and Central Texas.
ECMWF MOS continues to drop daytime temperatures below 100F by
Tuesday and Wednesday, and now the GFS has backed off on its
previously projected inferno for the Metroplex. MEX guidance has
replaced Tuesday`s 107F at DFW with a milder 100F. However, the
intense heat will be slower to abate across Central Texas.

25

.CLIMATE...

On average, August has the greatest number of 100-degree days.
Based on our forecast, these sites should meet/exceed the normal
values for the month.

         August 2024              August
       100-degree days        100-degree days
     (through August 14)    normals (1991-2020)

DFW         6 days*               10 days
Waco        5 days                11 days
Killeen     8 days*                9 days

* August 14 high temperature is to be determined

(Normal values are for the entire month of August.)

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and south winds will continue, but some variability from SE to
SW is expected through the period. Wind speeds will remain near
8-12 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots through this afternoon.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  82 101  82 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                99  78 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               99  78  99  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton             100  81 101  79 103 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney           100  80 101  80 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas             101  82 102  82 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             99  78 100  78 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           99  79 101  79 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              99  77 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  78 103  77 104 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$