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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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570 FXUS64 KFWD 142050 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 350 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ /Through Thursday/ Triple digit heat will continue to plague the region, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 90s to near 105 degrees both today and Thursday. While a slight weakening in the ridge will allow a weak cold front to slide into the Texas Panhandle tomorrow, this front unfortunately won`t provide us any relief here in North and Central Texas. In fact, a slight veering of low-level winds may actually result in a subtle increase in temperatures tomorrow. A few showers and storms may develop near the front, but this activity is expected to remain well to our northwest. Heat index values will climb to 105-109 degrees for many locations today and tomorrow, so the current Heat Advisory will need to be extended through Thursday. Fortunately, we will remain below Excessive Heat Warning criteria through Thursday, though that may not be the case for some locations beyond the current short-term period. The fire weather threat will remain elevated for areas near and west of Highway 281 due to low afternoon humidity (25-30%), scorching temperatures, and winds near 10-15 mph. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday Through the Middle of Next Week/ Our protracted August heatwave will persist into the upcoming week with widespread triple-digit temperatures. A latitudinally oriented ridge axis will strengthen and amplify into the weekend. Although the core of the mid-level high will be to our northwest, its intensification and orientation will increase our heights this weekend, resulting in the hottest temperatures of the year. Initially displaced equatorward, the top of the dome in the upper levels will eventually pair with the anticyclone cores beneath it, enhancing the subsidence early next week. Sea breeze activity may initiate this weekend as tropical easterlies impinge on the Texas coast, which will remain beneath a persistent TUTT. However, any daytime convection will struggle to penetrate the ridge, and even our southeast counties will maintain a dry forecast. Climbing rainfall deficits continue to stress vegetation, and wildfire concerns will worsen the next several days. Abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures will enhance the potential for fire starts, but diminished wind speeds will limit spread and aid in containment. Extended guidance has come into better agreement with the evolution of the ridge early next week, with a plurality of solutions favoring northerly flow above North and Central Texas. ECMWF MOS continues to drop daytime temperatures below 100F by Tuesday and Wednesday, and now the GFS has backed off on its previously projected inferno for the Metroplex. MEX guidance has replaced Tuesday`s 107F at DFW with a milder 100F. However, the intense heat will be slower to abate across Central Texas. 25 .CLIMATE... On average, August has the greatest number of 100-degree days. Based on our forecast, these sites should meet/exceed the normal values for the month. August 2024 August 100-degree days 100-degree days (through August 14) normals (1991-2020) DFW 6 days* 10 days Waco 5 days 11 days Killeen 8 days* 9 days * August 14 high temperature is to be determined (Normal values are for the entire month of August.) && .AVIATION... /Issued 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and south winds will continue, but some variability from SE to SW is expected through the period. Wind speeds will remain near 8-12 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots through this afternoon. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 82 101 82 103 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 99 78 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 99 78 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 5 Denton 100 81 101 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 100 80 101 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 101 82 102 82 103 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 99 78 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 99 79 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 99 77 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 101 78 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$