930
FXUS64 KFWD 160659
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
159 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/
/Overnight through Saturday/

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms spread out of southern
Oklahoma toward the Wichita Falls area over the last hour. While
these storms have decreased in intensity and continue to
dissipate, a well defined outflow boundary will spread southeast
into our area over the next few hours. While no additional
convective development is expected overnight, this boundary could
serve as a focus for isolated storm development in North Texas on
Friday. The rest of the overnight will remain warm with decreasing
cloud cover in the north and mostly clear skies farther south.
Overnight lows will likely only fall to around 80 degrees in many
areas.

Strong mid level ridging will ensure that we remain hot and mostly
dry headed into the weekend. A modest southwest flow above the
surface will likely send temperatures upward another degree or so
Friday afternoon, but low level flow will back toward the east-
southeast late this afternoon and should tap into a little more
moisture. While this will send heat indices soaring toward 110
degrees across our east/northeast counties, it may also allow for
an isolated storm or two to develop during peak heating. It`s a
little unclear where the aforementioned outflow boundary will be
located or if it will even be a player in potential convective
development, but any focused area of convergence could be a source
for storm development. There is also a weak, but notable upper
trough between 400-200 mb across south-central Texas which may aid
in mid level forcing for ascent. Large T/Td spreads this afternoon
and a deeply mixed boundary layer still yield around 2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE during peak heating. Any isolated storms that can develop
would pose a severe downburst wind threat. Right now, we`ll keep
PoPs at 10% or less, but these may need to be nudged upward in the
early morning update if trends in the short term guidance
continue.

Otherwise, it will be hot with most locations at or above 100
degrees and heat indices between 105-112 degrees. The current Heat
Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning will remain unchanged at this
time. The heat will continue into Saturday with highs between
100-105 degrees areawide.

There will continue to be a threat for grass fire starts given the
hot weather, dry fuels, and low afternoon RH. Humidity values will
drop to below 30% this afternoon with temperatures above 100
degrees. Winds will generally remain around 10 kt, although gusty
at times which will support the spread of grass fires.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Next Week/

North and Central Texas will lie beneath the eastern flank of a
strong mid level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle for most
of next week. The temperature and heat index will continue to be
the primary forecast concern for at least the first few days of
the forecast period. Triple digit highs and heat indices of 105 to
110+ will warrant the continuation of heat products for Sunday
and Monday, possibly into Tuesday.

Fortunately, the position of the ridge axis will place the region
within a north flow aloft regime, which could produce some minor
relief in the form of a back-door cold front by the mid week
period. Recent guidance indicates the front pushing slowly
southwest through the forecast area Monday through Wednesday.
Locations southwest of the front will remain within the triple
digit heat, while areas northeast of the boundary could see
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler. It now looks like the front
will make it through most if not all of the CWA before stalling
sometime Wednesday. This would keep high temperatures in the 95 to
100 degree range for most of the area mid to late next week. The
exception may be the southwest counties which may still wind up in
the warm sector by the time the front stalls.

Subsidence from the ridge will be strong, but the surface front
and north flow aloft could produce enough lift to generate
isolated convection. Will remain conservative with any rain/storm
chances (for Tuesday through Thursday) at this time due to model
uncertainty (and not wanting to get too optimistic just yet),
keeping POPs at 10 percent for now. The bottom line is that it
will still be hot, but there is potential for temperatures to be
closer to seasonal normals for the latter half of the next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1211 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with south flow around 10 kt.
There is a low chance (~10%) of isolated thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Otherwise, no significant aviation concerns are
expected at this time.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   102  82 103  84 104 /   5   0   0   5   0
Waco               101  80 102  79 103 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris              101  77 101  79 102 /   5   5   0  10   5
Denton             103  79 104  80 104 /   5   0   0   5   0
McKinney           102  79 102  81 103 /   5   0   0  10   0
Dallas             102  83 103  84 105 /   5   0   0  10   0
Terrell            101  78 103  78 103 /   5   0   0  10   0
Corsicana          101  79 101  79 103 /   5   0   0  10   0
Temple             101  78 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      102  77 104  77 105 /   5   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092-100>102-
115>117-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ093>095-103>107-118>123.

&&

$$