171
FXUS64 KFWD 070754
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
254 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

Today`s warm-up will be preceded by a seasonably warm, humid, and
convection-free night across North and Central Texas.
Temperatures will settle into the lower 70s by daybreak, though
some urban areas are likely to hover closer to the mid/upper 70s.
The diffuse remnants of yesterday`s stationary boundary in the
Hill Country has now washed out allowing southerly flow to return.
A slight uptick in wind speeds is expected later today in
response to the developing surface low near the CO-OK-KS border
which will increase the surface pressure gradient across the
state.

Supported by warm-air advection, the loosely organized cluster of
thunderstorms in northwestern Oklahoma is taking on a more
southeastward propagation at this hour. These storms are expected
to eventually succumb to the weakening of the low-level jet later
this morning, leading to a gradual weakening before the convection
reaches southern Oklahoma. By late morning/early afternoon,
Beryls rain bands will begin lashing the coast, progressively
reaching further inland through the afternoon and evening ahead of
its eventual landfall early Monday. Apart from these northward
sweeping rain bands, most of North and Central Texas will remain
dry today, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s
and triple digit peak heat index values. Though several locations
east of I-35 may see heat indices reach or exceed 105 degrees this
afternoon, we will not be issuing a Heat Advisory as this will be
the only day that this is expected to occur. As a reminder a Heat
Advisory is issued when the maximum heat index values are expected
to reach 105 degrees or higher for two consecutive days OR the
temperature is expected to reach 103 degrees or higher or two
consecutive days.

By this afternoon, a line of thunderstorms developing along an
approaching cold front is expected to grow upscale as storm
interactions occur and a stronger cold pool develops through the
evening. The resulting MCS will likely move across the Red River
during the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Areas near and north of the
I-20 corridor will have the best chance for thunderstorms with the
potential for strong wind gusts. With tropical moisture streaming
northward across the region any convection will be capable of
producing heavy downpours which could lead to quickly emerging
flood issues.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/
/Monday through Next Week/

Bottom Line: Heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding
associated with TS Beryl (anticipated to make landfall as a
hurricane along the TX Coast) will impact portions of North &
Central Texas through early next week.

* Most Likely Rainfall Amounts:
* West of I-35: Up to 1"
* East of I-35: 2 - 6" (highest totals SE)

* Isolated (10% Coverage) Amounts:
* West of I-35: 1 - 3"
* East of I-35: 6 - 10" (highest totals SE)

* Greatest Flood Threat Timing: Late Mon. Evening - Midday Tues.

Discussion: No significant adjustments have been made to the
forecast since the overnight update. Confidence is increasing
that periods of heavy rain will impact the region as Beryl moves
inland, resulting in an increased threat for flash flooding.

Beryl is forecast to make landfall Monday morning near the Middle
TX coast, before shifting north and weakening to a Tropical
Depression as it reaches Central Texas. The southernmost counties
in the Brazos Valley will start to see showers and storms ahead of
the main core of the system around mid-morning Monday, with
coverage expanding northward through the day. Most guidance has a
tight gradient of rainfall, with a narrow corridor of the highest
totals confined to the southeasternmost counties of the forecast
area. However, we`ll have to monitor the potential for dry air
entraining into the system, which would result in a less confined
area of precipitation and allow for heavier rainfall to expand
further north and west, impacting areas near the I-20 corridor.
This would result in a sharp drop-off of rain totals further to
the south and west near the Big Country. For the DFW Metroplex,
conditions will be feast vs famine when it comes to rainfall
totals. The further east, the better chances of totals near the
1.5" to 3" range, however areas only a handful of miles to the
west may receive next to nothing. We`ll also have to closely
monitor the threat for tornadoes late Monday and into Tuesday as
the system moves inland.

Rain chances taper off by Tuesday evening as the system shifts
out of the area and phases with an upper level trough heading for
the Great Lakes. The unsettled pattern sticks around through the
end of the week with daily storm chances through Friday. Highs
mostly in the 80s Monday and Tuesday will gradually warm into mid
90s generally by Thursday.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light
southeasterly surface winds becoming more northeasterly toward the
end of the period ahead of an approaching line of thunderstorms.
Scattered convection associated with the northward sweeping rain
bands of Tropical Cyclone Beryl will begin moving up from the
coast this afternoon. Given the current position and track of
Beryl, this activity is not expected to reach the TAF sites during
this period.

A convective complex is forecast to move southeastward out of
Oklahoma this evening, initially impacting air traffic around the
Bowie cornerpost as early as 00Z Monday. Have introduced VCTS to
the Metroplex TAFs with this update as this line will begin
approaching the airports near the end of the period. Our
confidence in how far south these storms will reach remains low as
guidance favors a more west to east propagation along the Red
River. Even if the main complex stays north of the TAF sites,
there is likely to be an outflow/wind shift that pushes out ahead
of the convection. The timing of wind shift reaching the airports
will be adjusted in subsequent TAFs.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  75  89  72  85 /   5  30  50  30  40
Waco                96  75  87  71  83 /  10  20  50  40  40
Paris               94  72  88  69  79 /   5  50  60  40  60
Denton              97  72  89  71  86 /   0  50  60  30  40
McKinney            96  72  89  71  83 /   5  40  60  40  40
Dallas              97  75  90  72  84 /   5  30  60  40  40
Terrell             95  73  88  71  83 /  10  30  60  50  50
Corsicana           96  76  89  73  84 /  10  30  60  60  50
Temple              96  75  86  72  87 /  10  10  50  40  40
Mineral Wells       97  71  89  69  87 /   0  30  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$