899
FXUS64 KFWD 032039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
339 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1100 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024/
/This Afternoon Through Thursday Afternoon/

The heat will hang on through the Fourth of July holiday with
North and Central Texas remaining on the western periphery of the
ridge aloft. Shallow moisture will keep the sky mostly clear,
allowing for maximum solar heating. Highs both this afternoon and
Thursday will range from the upper 90s to around 104. Afternoon
heat index values will remain in the 105 to 110 degree range for
all but the southwest zones where dew points will mix out the
most. We will maintain the Heat Advisory for all but the southwest
zones through Thursday. The Heat Advisory will most likely not
need to be extended for North Texas on Friday due to more clouds
and the passage of a weak cold front (as discussed in the long
term discussion below).

The only concern other than the heat will be an uptick in fire
starts since fuels have been drying out due to the heat, and
there will be multiple ignition sources due to Independence Day
celebrations. The good news is that sustained wind speeds will remain
below 15 mph for the most part, so the threat for significant
fire spread will stay low.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Evening Through the Middle of Next Week/

After two weeks of summer heat, the 4th of July will be the last
day with triple-digit temperatures for the foreseeable future. A
pattern shift will replace the heat with increased cloud cover,
rain chances, and below normal daytime temperatures that will
continue well into next week.

The transition may begin as early as Thursday evening when
showers and storms associated with an approaching cold front could
enter our northwest counties. But even in those areas, holiday
festivities are unlikely to be adversely impacted. Some of the
activity may survive through the night as the front enters North
Texas, but much of the region will have to wait until the daylight
hours Friday for renewed development along the boundary. Weak
shear should maintain a disorganized convective mode, and the
severe potential remains low. However, adequate destabilization
across Central and East Texas Friday afternoon could allow for a
few strong storms, particularly if the front or outflow boundaries
can reach those areas that reach the upper 90s one final time.
Our prolonged rain-free period should limit the flood potential,
but slow storm movement and precipitable water values topping 2
inches could yield isolated instances of heavy rainfall.

As is often the case with mid-summer fronts, the boundary will
steadily lose its definition on Saturday. However, it may still be
able to focus convective initiation Saturday afternoon, especially
if previous activity helps to enhance the boundary. Seasonal
southerly flow will regain control on Sunday when abundant
sunshine will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal
values. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms
may develop Sunday afternoon. But the more organized convection
will be in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at
North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. This could
bring widespread rain to the region Monday, which would then be a
remarkably mild day.

Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico
along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. While it may
remain within the tropical easterlies, it could also recurve
toward the col atop the Lone Star State. Guidance diverges, with
ECMWF ensemble members clustered around a second Mexico landfall
and GEFS members favoring Texas. The GEPS (Canadian ensembles) are
a compromise between the two, matching both the official NHC
forecast and a majority of other dynamic model solutions that keep
Beryl`s center south of Brownsville. However, the trend has been
steadily northward with all available guidance. This is still
several days away, but a more northerly path could bring Beryl`s
post-landfall deluge to North and Central Texas. We will continue
to assess this potential as Beryl approaches.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1100 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

...VFR and south flow...

High pressure will hang on through the TAF period, yielding great
flying weather across North Texas. Other than a few passing high
clouds, the sky will be clear and no visibility restrictions are
anticipated.

A south wind will continue between 6 and 12 knots along with some
daytime gusts around 20 knots.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  83 101  80  93 /   0   0   0  20  40
Waco                99  78  99  78  97 /   0   0   0   5  20
Paris               98  79  98  75  91 /   0   0   5  30  30
Denton             101  80 102  77  93 /   0   5   0  30  40
McKinney            99  81 100  77  93 /   0   0   0  30  40
Dallas             101  82 101  80  95 /   0   0   0  20  40
Terrell             99  79  98  77  94 /   0   0   0  10  30
Corsicana          100  80 100  79  98 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              99  77  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0  20
Mineral Wells      101  78 102  76  93 /   0   0   0  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$