469
FXUS64 KFWD 291815
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
115 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend/

This morning started warm, with both DFW and Waco only falling to
81 degrees. This value will break the daily record high minimum
temperature at DFW and ties the record at Waco. This afternoon
will be another hot day with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s,
and heat index values between 105-112. An Excessive Heat Warning
and Heat Advisory remain in effect through the afternoon. Please
continue to take precautions to beat the heat, particularly if you
spend a prolonged period of time outdoors. Isolated showers will
develop across eastern Central Texas this afternoon, but strong
subsidence from a mid-level ridge should keep the coverage/chance
of storms at or below 10%.

Little change in the local pattern tonight will result in another
warm night with overnight lows in the low 80s to upper 70s, or
5-10 degrees above average. Tomorrow`s daily record high minimum
temperature record at DFW is 80, which has a greater than 70%
chance of being broken. Tomorrow`s highs will be similar to today,
but deeper afternoon mixing will lower the heat index by several
degrees. We are not planning to extend the Excessive Heat Warning
into tomorrow, but will likely extend a Heat Advisory through
tomorrow for the entire forecast area later this afternoon.

There are low precip chances late tonight and tomorrow as a cold
front moves south across the Central Plains. The early morning
activity would come in the form of warm-advection showers across
far northeast Texas and should dissipate by the early afternoon.
The "cooler" air behind the cold front is not expected to move
across the Red River, however the front will be a trigger for
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon to our north. Strong cold pools
are likely, with new storms developing along outflow boundaries.
Weak steering flow will cause the storms to propagate along the
outflows and move into our Red River counties late in the day. We
don`t expect storms to move much further south than highway 380
due to the dominance of the mid-level ridge.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/
/Sunday Night Through Next Week/

Widespread triple digit temperatures will continue throughout the
week, with the hottest temperatures expected on Tuesday. Heat
index values will be between 103-110 degrees each day, but >110
degrees should be less common than we experienced this week. Heat
headlines will continue throughout the week for most (if not all)
areas. There are some early indications that the ridge responsible
for our hot and quiet weather will weaken and shift further west
late next week. As a result, rain chances will return late in the
week and potentially continue into next weekend. While most of
the rain would occur Friday onward, it`s worth monitoring the
forecast if you have any outdoor plans for the July 4th holiday,
as timing is certainly subject to change over the next several
days.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow will prevail through the valid TAF period at
the D10 terminals. A few changes in the cloud cover will occur,
but most of the changes will be operationally insignificant and
therefore were not included in the TAFs. A diurnal Cu field based
around 5-6 kft should linger through the afternoon and dissipate
this evening. While another MVFR stratus intrusion is likely
across Central Texas/ACT, there is only a 15% chance it moves over
the D10 terminals. We do expect a VFR ceiling based between 4-6
kft to develop near the Red River after 06-09Z, but it should
remain north of the D10 terminals. Scattered storms are expected
tomorrow afternoon over southern Oklahoma, but should remain well
north of D10.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  82 100  81 100 /   0   5  10   5   5
Waco               100  78  99  78  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               96  79  95  76  95 /   0   5  20   5  10
Denton             100  80  99  78 100 /   0   5  10   5   5
McKinney            99  80  98  79  99 /   0   5  10   5   5
Dallas             100  82  99  81 100 /   0   5  10   5   5
Terrell             98  78  97  78  97 /   5   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           99  79  98  79 100 /  10   5   5   5   5
Temple             100  77  98  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  78 100  77 100 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-131>135-144>148-159-161-162.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ115-129-130-
141>143-156>158-160-174-175.

&&

$$